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Flyers Fan Reaction (FFR4) Gm 39: NYI 4, PHI 3 (SO) – Head Against The Wahl

Flyers

The Flyers losing their ninth straight game? Could have seen that coming. Doing so by going goal-less in a nine-round shootout? That’s just cruel. (Matt Slocum/AP)

The Flyers losing their ninth straight game? Could have seen that coming. Doing so by going goal-less in a nine-round shootout? That’s just cruel. (Matt Slocum/AP)

Flyers Fan Reaction (FFR4) Gm 39: NYI 4, PHI 3 (SO) – Head Against The Wahl

No, the Philadelphia Flyers aren’t cursed. Yes, it sure feels like they are. The Philadelphia Flyers lose, 4-3, to the New York Islanders in a sixteen-round shootout in which they somehow failed to score a single goal. The game shouldn’t have even gone that far; the Flyers significantly outplayed the Islanders and led with less than five minutes in regulation. But Casey Cizikas scored an impressive redirection to tie it, Semyon Varlamov turned into a brick wall, and Oliver Wahlstrom ended a run of seventeen consecutive combined misses to begin the shootout with a high glove snipe on Carter Hart. Something else that shouldn’t have gone as far as it has; the Flyers latest losing streak, which is now up to nine games.

In previous years where the Flyers have missed the playoffs or gone on a massive losing streak, the team has almost always bounced back. The 2015-16 club lost six straight and eight of nine around Halloween then turned in two four-game winning streaks in the next two months and finished 17-6-4 to sneak into the playoffs. In 2017-18, the Flyers lost ten straight games at basically the same time as this season’s ten-game losing streak; only to snap out of that drought with a six-game winning streak. The next season, they lost eight in a row at roughly the same point in the season as their current eight-game skid, then went 10-1-1 in their next twelve, including an eight-game winning streak.

It likely won’t be enough to get them into this year’s playoffs or even make the rest of the East nervous, but history suggests there will be at least one Flyers surge before season’s end. But history isn’t the present. While many Flyers fans have deemed the season a lost cause and would be fine with the team bottoming out and securing as high a draft pick as possible, there will always be some holding out hope for a once-in-a-lifetime turn-around, 2018-19 St. Louis Blues style. Under different circumstances, it might be possible to deem that a somewhat realistic outcome. But there are three major reasons why all but an act of God would even keep the Flyers legitimately in the playoff race deep into April: injuries, the trade deadline, and their overall play.

This isn’t to say injuries are the only reason, or even the main reason, for the Flyers’ struggles this season. Many Flyers who have played this season haven’t been good enough. And just about every team in the NHL has had to deal with multiple key players missing games due to COVID or/and injuries. But they are a reason not just for the team’s current struggles, but to think they can’t snap out of it. Take out any team’s top-three natural centers (Claude Giroux would be at wing if the Flyers were at full health) and their best defenseman, and they are going to be significantly worse.

That’s the situation the Flyers are in now after finding out Kevin Hayes will be out for 3-4 weeks after undergoing surgery to drain fluid from his adductor region. While Mike Yeo said pre-game Hayes is optimistic he could return earlier, that’s not a guarantee; and it’s also no secret Hayes has been far below 100% in the 20 games he has suited up for. The surgery should help, but it’s also Hayes’ third in about seven months; it’s hard to imagine Hayes returning to 2019-20 vintage in the next couple of months. And there’s even less certainty surrounding the Flyers’ other absences. While all of Derick Brassard (day-to-day), Sean Couturier (week-to-week), and Ryan Ellis (indefinite/no timeline) have different timelines, none of them are skating right now. It’s hard to imagine the first two returning by February, and it’s hardly worth guessing on the Ellis front.

Another reason the Flyers have avoided being one of the first teams eliminated in the recent years they have missed the playoffs is that they haven’t been major sellers. Here is every player the Flyers dealt at the trade deadline in years they’ve missed the playoffs since 2014: Kimmo Timonen, Braydon Coburn, Mark Streit, Wayne Simmonds, Erik Gustafsson, and Michael Raffl. While Timonen and Simmonds were core pieces for the Flyers in their primes, both players were significantly below their peak powers when dealt. Timonen hadn’t played a game for the 2014-15 team due to blood clots when he was sent to Chicago. And Simmonds was on pace for just 36 points after six straight seasons scoring at least at a 50-point clip.

If Chuck Fletcher decides to go full scorched Earth, the value of the players the Flyers trade this season could arguably be more than all of those previous players combined. Claude Giroux, Rasmus Ristolainen, Martin Jones, Justin Braun, Keith Yandle, and Brassard are all UFAs at season’s end. The latter three will almost certainly be dealt; their odds of staying in Philadelphia beyond 2021-22 weren’t very high even if the Flyers were good this season. Trading goaltenders mid-season is always tricky, but Jones could easily be moved if a team loses a netminder to injury or just wants to add depth.

The other two cases are a little more complicated. The Flyers did trade a 1st and 2nd round pick (plus Robert Hägg) to acquire Ristolainen in the offseason. They probably can’t recoup that whole package. But getting a 2nd plus another asset – maybe a protected 1st round pick if the bidding gets high, but that’s probably a bit too optimistic — is certainly possible. If the Flyers decide at least a semi-teardown is necessary, it probably wouldn’t make much sense to extend the 27-year old, but it’s not a guarantee.

And then there’s the Claude Giroux conundrum. The captain has an NMC so he’s not going anywhere unless he wants to. It’s possible Giroux would want to re-sign even if the Flyers do shift towards a rebuild; he’s been a Flyer his entire career, and he and his wife Ryanne have already begun their family, giving birth to two children in the last three years. But Giroux has also never won a Stanley Cup. And the allure of finally getting the ring he deserves may be stronger than his desire to stay. It’s would be a tough call for Giroux to his only NHL team, but it would also be understandable. It’s also worth noting the Simmonds and Streit returns even included NHL players who helped those teams win games in the aftermath (Ryan Hartman and Valtteri Filppula, respectively); there’s no guarantee that would happen in any moves this year.

Those two factors make it unlikely the Flyers will have many more games like Tuesday’s. No, they didn’t win; they’ll probably have plenty more losses before the season is over. But they did deliver their most impressive performance perhaps since their 6-1 thrashing of the Devils on Dec. 14. Tonight marked just the third time this season the Flyers collected at least 60% of the expected goals (Jan. 4 at Anaheim and that Devils game were the others). They also did a great job of keeping the Islanders out of the high-danger areas; you could argue it was their strongest defensive performance of the season. The Flyers have had a few strong games by the underlying numbers during this drought; the Anaheim and Rangers games stand out. But this was the strongest they looked by the eye test and the numbers combined.

And yet it still wasn’t enough. Losing this way might be more demoralizing than getting blown out; at least for a team dealing with such hard times. The Flyers have just a 45.78% expected goals this season; only five teams have been worse. In other words, the Flyers don’t play this well very often; which makes it all the more important they capitalize on their strong performances when they happen. For fans and players alike, it’s easy to look at a performance as strong as Tuesday’s and throw your hands up in frustration. If this wasn’t enough to break the Flyers’ losing streak, what could it possibly take?

“You see the effort, the ways that guys were blocking shots, paying a price for each other,” Mike Yeo said. “Felt like a lot of the areas of our team game were really strong. We have to stay focused, motivated, handle it the right way. Seeing progress in our game; it’s hard to sit here on a losing streak and feel good about progress, but we have no other choice.”

The Flyers haven’t been this close to winning in three weeks. If they keep building off the progress Yeo is seeing, progress that was easy for anyone to see on Tuesday, the streak shouldn’t last much longer. But everything that has happened so far this season suggests they’ll probably take another step back; the Flyers have only won the expected goals battle in consecutive games twice all season. And putting it all out there and still coming up short can easily bring out the bad habits Yeo mentioned earlier in the skid.

“The easiest way to fix it is to have leadership like we did today,” Yeo said before specifically highlighting the efforts of Giroux, Braun, and Cam York. “I don’t think anyone else has a choice but to follow along. You have to face (adversity) head on.”

There’s no doubt that the Flyers are digging deep right now. But their hole is also getting deeper. The Flyers shouldn’t have to play much, if not any better, to end their skid on Thursday against Columbus. But that was also true about tonight’s performance. Somehow, in their darkest hour, the Flyers have to be prepared to push even harder.

“There was some tremendous efforts out there,” Yeo emphasized. “We can’t give in.”

Lindies

Flyers shooters are 0 for 16 in shootout attempts this season. Imagine playing rock, paper, scissors, and your opponent throwing the same option sixteen straight times? That’s basically what we’ve got here.

As the ESPN+ broadcast pointed out pre-game, this is the third season in Flyers history the team has had multiple losing streaks of at least eight games. Remember seeing a month ago how the Flyers reached the playoffs each of the last two seasons they had a ten-game losing streak? The results aren’t quite as good when they also come this close to matching it.

Tonight marked the one-month anniversary of the Flyers’ last home win; a 4-3 OT victory over the Senators in their final game before Christmas. The Flyers haven’t beat a team at home with least a .500 points percentage since Nov. 16, the last win of the Alain Vigneault era. They are 0-5-3 since. Their last win against anywhere against a team with at least a .500 points percentage was Nov. 10 at Vegas.

The Flyers injury situation appeared to get worse in the third period when Joel Farabee took a clean hit from Noah Dobson and came up grabbing at his left shoulder in pretty severe pain. Thankfully, he returned to the ice just a few minutes later without really skipping a beat. The Flyers’ wingers remain basically unscathed on the injury front this season.

With his goal tonight, Claude Giroux has reached the 30-point threshold for the 13th time in his NHL career. Like in so many Flyers statistics, only Bobby Clarke has cleared that bar more times. See? There’s still room for some positivity. In fact, here’s some more!

Maybe the Flyers could win in a video game (yes, I know this is a Vegas franchise mode).

As Mike Yeo hinted at after Monday’s game, the Flyers indeed shook up their defensive pairings — a lot more than most people anticipated. Cam York played mostly with Travis Sanheim (5:30 at 5-on-5), but also a bit with Ivan Provorov (2:48), who mostly played with Rasmus Ristolainen (15:37), who was also Keith Yandle’s most frequent partner (6:22). Provorov was mostly with Braun. Both of York’s pairings struggled (expected goals were 0.5-0.12 Islanders with York on the ice), but just about every other pairing performed well; every other Flyers defender was above break-even by expected goals, with Braun leading the way at 77.29%.

3 Stars

3rd: Robin Salo (NYI) – Goal (1), 3 Shots

2nd: Semyon Varlamov (NYI) – .912 SV% (31 Saves/34 Shots), 4 Saves/4 Shots in Shootout (5 Flyers missed the net)

1st: Oliver Wahlstrom (NYI) – Shootout Winner

Next

NYI: 1/21, 7 PM vs. ARI (9-24-4, W1)

PHI: 1/20, 7 PM vs. CBJ (17-18-1, L1)

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