For fantasy football fans who partake in dynasty leagues, the 2020 season is well underway. While a future post on this site will go into detail regarding dynasty leagues, this piece will focus on identifying the top 5 fantasy players from a dynasty perspective.
To offer context, a dynasty league works just like a traditional, redraft fantasy football league. The only difference is that owners retain most of their players year after year. Rosters are supplemented through rookie and free agent drafts every spring. It is important, therefore, to think of age on top of player quality when conducting a startup draft in a dynasty league that will go on for years.
For the purpose of these rankings, scoring rules are based off 1/2 point PPR and teams only play one QB every week. Here we go…
#5 – Ezekiel Elliott, RB
Ezekiel Elliott was the RB5 in 2019. He was outperformed by Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, and Derrick Henry. He is listed ahead of each RB on that list (except McCaffrey) despite his 2019 performance. There are a few reasons for this ranking.
First, from a dynasty perspective, there is no greater certainty in terms of job security at the RB position than the contract Jerry Jones offered Zeke last year. He will be a Cowboy for a while. This ensures that his workload will remain consistent for years to come.
Second, other than Christian McCaffrey, every other RB who ranked ahead of Elliott in 2019 is not likely to repeat his performance in 2020. Aaron Jones scored a ridiculous number of touchdowns (18) and is due for a hard regression. Dalvin Cook benefited from a run-heavy offense that relied more on the pass as the team got closer to the post-season. Given his injury history, there is also a risk that Cook does not play 16 games next year. Finally, Henry may not be a Titan in 2020. This uncertainty, coupled with the likelihood of his rushing stats regressing, combine to boost Elliott ahead of this RB as well.
#4 – Patrick Mahomes, QB
This is a controversial ranking. In a one-QB league, it is usually not wise to pass on star WRs and RBs in the first round. Mahomes, however, is a strong outlier to traditional fantasy statistics. He is going to be amazing for years to come and the owner who secures the young star as their team’s QB will be set for years.
An argument could be made for Lamar Jackson being ranked similarly. Unfortunately, the same confidence I have in Mahomes does not extend to Jackson. A combination of likely harsh regression along with high injury risk, given his style of play, discourages me from believing Jackson’s 420+ point season will repeat.
Mahomes played in only 13 games and ended up scoring only 50 points less than the second best fantasy QB in 2019 (Deshaun Watson). Not only will Mahomes be a QB1 for the next decade; in many of those seasons, he will be THE QB1. Definitely worth the large investment.
#3 – Christian McCaffrey, RB
Another controversial decision. McCaffrey smoked his RB peers and ended up as the best fantasy RB in 2019. The next best RB on the season scored nearly 100 fewer fantasy points (Aaron Jones). 100!! The explosive season McCaffrey has should have him ranked #1 in many 2020 redraft leagues. Here, however, he is #3.
There would certainly be nothing wrong with taking McCaffrey #1 in a dynasty startup draft. There are, however, a few concerns. First, no RB has had more work and carries than McCaffrey over the course of the past two seasons. Second, the QB situation in Carolina is uncertain. Third, the new coaching regime brings some doubt to the way in which the RB will be utilized moving forward.
While McCaffrey’s talent could justifiably have him ranked as the best fantasy RB in football, the consistency around one other RB in the league sets him back a bit…..
#2 – Saquon Barkley, RB
Saquon Barkley has all the talent in the world to be the best RB in football. He played in only 12 games in 2019, but he had strong games in his first two seasons that demonstrated he could be a fantasy powerhouse for years to come.
There are a few factors that help Barkley land above McCaffrey in the 2020 dynasty rankings. First, despite this year proving the contrary, the likelihood of a serious injury is greater for the smaller McCaffrey than it is for the well-built Barkley. Second, the Giants have their QB situation figured out. Daniel Jones proved he could sling the ball around last year. Barkley will benefit both through the air and on the ground because of this.
Perhaps the most important factor giving Barkley huge dynasty value is the new coaching staff. The Patriots-inspired philosophies know well how to utilize the RBs in the passing game. Understanding that Daniel Jones will need to get the ball out of his hands quickly will give Barkley lots of work, especially if the WR situation is not immediately remedied. Barkley may get outscored on any given season over the next few years, but no RB will outperform him over the next half-decade.
#1 – Michael Thomas, WR
In any league that is PPR at all, Michael Thomas needs to be the first player taken. An argument could be made that he will not be able to replicate production after Drew Brees is gone. At least for one more season, this will not be tested. Even after, however, Thomas will be fine.
Receivers are consistent for much longer than RBs. Michael Thomas, regardless of who is throwing him the ball, has all of the attributes necessary to destroy defenses for the next decade. While taking Barkley or McCaffrey could provide a solid RB1 for the next 4-5 years, taking Michael Thomas could provide THE WR1 for the next 10 years. In a traditional redraft league, I am a big proponent of RBs with high draft picks. In a long-term, PPR dynasty league, no other player should be considered above Michael Thomas.
