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Can Phillies Reestablish Control Over Rotation, Season? 7th-Day Stretch

Phillies

Aaron Nola and the Phillies rotation have been counted on heavily all season long. Have they been relied on too much to hold up down the stretch? (Ross D. Franklin/AP)

Aaron Nola and the Phillies rotation have been counted on heavily all season long. Have they been relied on too much to hold up down the stretch? (Ross D. Franklin/AP)

Can Phillies Reestablish Control Over Rotation, Season? 7th-Day Stretch

In baseball, sustainability is something that is usually better addressing look back than looking forward. A plan that works for months and months and months can look to be just that. But September has a way of testing teams in ways no other month, not even October and November, does. In theory, it is just like any other month. But the pressure on the bodies of players, especially on the shoulders of teams fighting for a postseason berth, weighs heavier than ever.

That pressure has taken its toll on the Phillies harder than arguably any team over the last week. There are a lot of people who will refer to this week as a return to the horrors of Septembers past. The good news is that this Phillies team is different in quite a few ways from their predecessors. Different doesn’t always mean better, and better doesn’t always mean better enough. But the biggest difference, the one that is guiding the club’s overarching philosophy, is the team’s spot in the standings.

The Phillies, even after a nightmare 1-6 tailspin, aren’t on the outside looking in right now. They’re in a spot, and with some cushion around it as well. They still lead the Milwaukee Brewers, who are also in a rut, by 2.5 games for the National League’s final Wild Card spot. That number may as well be 3.5 games since the Phillies own the tie-breaker by winning the season series against Milwaukee. There are no Game 163s anymore because of the expanded postseason. So if the Phillies ended the season in a tie with the Brewers or the inconsistent San Diego Padres, either for a spot or just for seeding, it’s Philadelphia who gets the nod.

The last week has raised questions about a key part of the team’s plan, however. In part because of a bullpen that was simply untrustworthy the last two seasons, the Phillies have pushed their starters harder and farther than most all season. Aaron Nola has pitched at least six innings in 20 of his 26 starts. Since April, when Zack Wheeler was ramping up after missing almost all of Spring Training, he’s done so in 16 of 19 starts. And it’s not just the aces going deep into games; Kyle Gibson has hit that plateau in 14 of his 26 starts, too.

That means of the team’s full-season starters, only Ranger Suárez, who is in his first year as a Major League starter, hasn’t reached the sixth inning in a majority of their starts. Suárez has done so nine times in 24 tries, including three times in four starts from July 30 to Aug. 17. Noah Syndergaard pitched six innings or more six times in 15 starts with the Angels. Since joining the Phillies, he has done so three times in six starts. He pitched just two innings in 2021 after missing nearly two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery. Both can probably not be pushed as hard down the stretch to preserve their health. And neither certainly will be if their performances in their last two starts (Suárez: 6.25 ERA in 7.2 innings, Syndergaard: 5.40 ERA in 10 innings) does not improve.

Wheeler, meanwhile, remains on the injured list with forearm tendinitis. If the Phillies had a few fewer wins, maybe he wouldn’t be there. All reports on Wheeler are that his injury isn’t serious. But the Phillies are trying to balance the short and the long game. There is certainly urgency in Philadelphia. Maybe too much of it, which is understandable since the Phillies’ postseason drought will turn 4,000 days in exactly two weeks. If the team rushes Wheeler back, and he is either ineffective or re-injures himself, things become nearly hopeless. The Phillies know they must rely on Wheeler, who threw a career-high 213.1 innings last year, whenever he returns. So they naturally want him to be as reliable as possible when he does.

Maybe it is time for the Phillies to make life easier on the rest of their rotation, though. The team’s options at the moment are thin but should expand shortly. Seranthony Domínguez and Zach Eflin, the latter having not pitched since June 25, will throw live batting practice on Tuesday. If all goes well, they should begin rehab assignments shortly thereafter and return to the Phillies soon.

Eflin, who has made just five relief appearances in his career, would come back too late to be able to return to the rotation. He could have a role in the bullpen, but what does that look like? He could take over Nick Nelson’s long relief spot. But that might be better reserved for Bailey Falter when Wheeler returns. Maybe he or/and Falter piggyback Suárez or Syndergaard’s future starts, coming in around the fourth inning to pitch two to three innings themselves. Suárez himself excelled in this role when coming in on schedule for Spencer Howard in early 2021. Perhaps Eflin is used in higher-leverage spots, taking the middle inning role Corey Knebel solidified after losing his closer role before being ruled out for the season a few weeks ago. In 8.1 career relief innings, Eflin does have a stellar 1.11 ERA.

Perhaps the Phillies play the wild card option again. In late 2021, the Phillies summoned Hans Crouse, then arguably the team’s best pitching prospect in AA or above, to start their final home game on Sept. 26. If the Phillies promote Griff McGarry, who ranked 99th on Baseball America’s Top 100 Midseason Prospects ranking, he won’t be starting games for them. But he has a similar range of options as Eflin. The 23-year-old has electric velocity and quality off-speed offerings, but his command has been inconsistent. Then again, the Phillies have been consistent in valuing high-velocity pitchers who struggle to limit walks in their bullpen. Perhaps a change of pace would be better to add to the mix. But while the Phillies’ depth is better than in years past, it still has plenty of room for growth.

Regardless of where it comes from, the Phillies need more from their pitching staff on the field. They also need more from their hitters off of it. Of course, on the field would be nice, too. The Phillies left a runner at third with nobody out three times in their final two games against the Giants. Yes, maybe the Phillies are beginning to fall victim to another September swoon. That doesn’t mean they can’t snap out of it.

When Bryce Harper went down, veterans like Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, and Nick Castellanos stepped up. They helped create a culture of confidence that helped the team go 32-20 in Harper’s absence.

Schwarber and Castellanos, the latter of whom is on the IL with an oblique injury that doesn’t appear to be too serious, have both been to the postseason before. Schwarber even won the World Series with the Cubs in 2016. Sure, there are some caveats. Castellanos hasn’t made the postseason in a 162-game season since 2014. Schwarber was absent for almost all of Chicago’s 2016 run (but not their 2017 NLCS push), rapidly recovering from a torn ACL and LCL in April to return for DH duties in the Fall Classic. But in a locker room that includes loads of young players who haven’t been able to finish the job in years past and the two Major Leaguers with the most games played among those who’ve never reached the postseason (J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura), the voices of those who have carry more weight. Especially at this time of year.

On Aug. 21, Segura ripped a lead-changing home run to left field in the eighth inning and celebrated like it was his first. Yesterday, precisely two weeks later, Realmuto ripped a lead-changing home run to left field in the eighth inning and celebrated with a rare heightened level of emotion. The Domínguez-less Phillies tried to push David Robertson in both games, and in both, he allowed a two-run home run in the ninth inning as the Phillies fell in heartbreaking fashion. Of course, the Phillies responded to the former of those disappointments with six consecutive wins at home. Now, a home stand of the same length against the fading Marlins and hapless Nationals awaits.

Read about another team in a wild card race, albeit one with a much different story in the surprising Baltimore Orioles.

Familiar feelings don’t all have to start with the phrase, “here we go again.” They don’t have to end with that saying, either. The month of September has always been synonymous with chaos for the Phillies. Even though they’ve thrived in those scenarios before, they ultimately put themselves through too much madness to be successful. The Phillies should remember that — just like they should remember how locked in they’ve been for most of the last three months. Recency bias is always strong, especially in this day and age. But if the Phillies can see not just the light ahead of them, but the light they’ve already walked through, it will be much easier to reign things back in.

The lessons and scars from the past still linger; they always will until the day the Phillies end their drought. But they don’t count for anything when it matters most. Now, more than ever, it’s time for this Phillies team to show what they’re made of.

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