AJ Dillon
Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

Oof, you’ve either clicked on this article for 3 reasons: You agree with me, you want to know who AJ Dillon is, or you want to laugh at me. If you’re here for the first two: Welcome! If you’re here for the 3rd reason, prepare to laugh at yourself. AJ Dillon is a rookie that was selected 62nd overall by the Green Bay Packers. How can he hurt Aaron Jones’s fantasy production?

Why AJ Dillon?

Most of Aaron Jones’s points came from TDs last year. As I said in my Derrick Henry fantasy post: TDs win leagues. He had 16 rushing TDs and 3 receiving TDs for a total of 19 TDs. On TDs alone, that is 114 points in standard leagues. That’s awesome. However, that won’t be the case for Jones this year. 12 of those 16 TDs came from about 5 yards or less to the goal line. So, now you’re thinking: so what? Aaron Jones is 5’10 and 207 lbs. AJ Dillon is 6′ and 247 lbs. They drafted AJ Dillon, especially in the 2nd round, for a reason. If you think that Aaron Jones can get even close to 16 rushing TDs again, I have some news for you. AJ Dillon is a big guy, he is going to be the one the Packers go to at the goal line. This doesn’t mean that Jones won’t have any TDs this year, you should just expect way less.

Hell, I’m not even saying that you should draft Dillon over Aaron Jones. I’m only saying that Aaron Jones will not be a top fantasy RB this year. I’d say he’ll be top 15 just off of rushing yards and receptions with yards. Aaron Jones was 2nd in all RBs in a standard PPR league, if you’re expecting him to have even close to that kind of year for fantasy, you’re kinda dumb. However, it could be interesting if AJ seems an increase of carries and TDs as the season goes on. But, for now, just realize that Dillon being on the Packers will hurt Aaron Jones’s fantasy production.