2023 MLB Fantasy Baseball: 99 Problems, Winning Is One Draft Strategy
It’s fantasy baseball season! We are eight days from Opening Day of the 2023 MLB season, and 12 members of our Vendetta team (myself included) completed our company fantasy baseball draft Friday evening. Milo Coulter ranked them all here.
As the No. 4 pick (out of 12), it’s time for me to be transparent about my fantasy baseball draft strategy for each pick in real-time. O.K., maybe not real-time, but I unwrapped all of my thoughts pick-by-pick. Let’s dive into it!
But first, here is a pick-by-pick outline from each member:
(We completed our draft on ESPN in its H2H points format. For more on that, click here.)
R1, P4: Trea Turner, SS, Phillies
With my first selection of the 2023 Vendetta fantasy baseball draft, I went with Turner.
He was among the top players on my board, along with the three that went ahead of me, Jose Ramirez, Aaron Judge (what a snag by Bagdonas at the end of the R1) and Mookie Betts. I took almost the entire 1:30 to decide, pondering between Turner and Ramirez, a premier switch-hitting third baseman.
I don’t you could do wrong with either — or any of the four — but I chose Turner because of his speed. With new rules in-place for base size and pickoff limitations, he’ll be able to leg out more extra base-hits and he’ll likely be more willing to steal bases. His three-year slash line is .316/.364/.514 (137 OPS+), averaging 19 home runs and 50 extra-base hits per 502 plate appearances. Turner’s fantasy potential, if he stays healthy, at the top of the order of a good offense (even without Harper) is through the roof.
R2, P9: Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners
Here, I was choosing between Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Yordan Alvarez and Paul Goldschmidt, who happened to be the following three selections. Rodriguez, 21, was one of four players in baseball — Kyle Tucker, Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien being the others — who hit at least 25 home runs with at least 25 stolen bases last season. Once again, I incentivized athleticism on the basepaths more this fantasy cycle, so I think grabbing one of the best young outfielders in the game was the way to go, even though I *almost* opted to snag Alvarez because of how lethal his bat is.
R3, P4: Spencer Strider, SP, Braves
I wanted to nab a top-flight starter within the first 2-4 rounds, even though they’re slightly more devalued this year than in year’s past because of ESPN’s new scoring system.
Regardless, pitching is still important in point’s leagues — especially if you have reliable arms. Strider certainly was that for Atlanta last year, fanning 202 batters in 131.2 frames. I don’t expect those numbers to sustain itself this year, and I’m admittedly slightly concerned with how Snitker might utilize Strider as the season ages, but I’m confident in his upside with one of the best offenses in baseball behind him. I also considered Zack Wheeler (who’s entering his age-33 season with plenty of mileage on his arm, but still very good) and Luis Castillo (another fun young arm paired with a good offense) here, too.
R4, P9: Austin Riley, 3B, Braves
I’m honestly surprised Riley, a power-hitting third baseman, dropped this far. The soon-to-be 26-year-old has finished in the top-7 in NL MVP voting each of the last two seasons, sporting a .288/.358/.530 slash line (138 OPS+). He clobbered 38 home runs in 2022 after 33 in 2021, plating at least 90 runs in both seasons. The one downside is the strikeouts, but I’m willing to sacrifice that trade-off if he’s going to continue ripping the cover off the baseball — especially if I’m nabbing him at the end of the 4th round.
R5, P4: Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers
I was choosing between Urias, Alek Manoah, and Framber Valdez with this selection. Urias led the NL in ERA and ERA+ (194). I didn’t love his FIP-ERA differential, but he’s still one of the best at limiting hard contact; Urias ranked in the 75th percentile or better in average exit velocity (83rd), expected batting average (84th), chase rate (76th), hard-hit percentage allowed (96th) and expected slugging percentage (83rd), per Statcast. You could do worse!
R6, P9: Masataka Yoshida, OF, Red Sox
This was my first big high-risk, high-reward selection.
I am admittedly very high on Yoshida’s bat. He slashed a career .327/.421/.539 in seven seasons in Japan, including .335/.447/.561 line with 28 doubles, 21 home runs and 88 RBIs with a near 2:1 BB:K ratio across 119 games (508 games) last year. I don’t think he’ll be a 25-plus home run hitter, but Yoshida possesses elite bat-to-ball skills, a very good eye with a ceiling of a possible .900 OPS player, even as a rookie.
R7, P4: Xander Bogaerts, SS, Padres
I’ve stared at this pick 1,000 times since I made it and I am still skeptical — not because of who I grabbed, but because of who I didn’t.
Josh Hader was right there! At the last second, I pivoted away from an elite closer and elected to go with another reliable bat in Bogaerts — Hader’s teammate — who’s in the running for one of the most underrated bats in the game.
The biggest reason why I pivoted was because I know there’s going to be an extended period of time where Hader’s production falls off a cliff. Who knows when that will be? My brain screamed at me that it was too risky to grab at the time, and given how the rest of my draft went, I’m admittedly regretting it. Oh well! This could only backfire on me at some point in time, right?
R8, P9: Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox
Giolito had an un-Giolito-like year in 2022, pitching to a 4.90 ERA across 30 starts, but was bit by some bad luck (4.06 FIP); in the three years prior, he had a 3.47 combined ERA (129 ERA+) with 526 strikeouts in 427.2 frames, garnering AL CY Young votes in each season. I’m banking on his numbers being closer to those averages in 2023.
R9, P4: Ryan Pressly, RP, Astros
Even though I already liked Pressly’s value in the 9th round, I corrected my bad 7th round error by securing one of the best closers in baseball on one of the best teams in baseball.
R10, P9: Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks
Upside, upside and even more upside! Carroll maintained his rookie eligibility after appearing in just 32 games (115 plate appearances) in 2022, when he hit .260 with an .830 OPS (133 OPS+), four home runs, nine doubles, two triples and two stolen bases. The 22-year-old is a top prospect who had sprint speed in the 100th percentile. Even though Carroll will have a couple rookie hiccups here and there, I’m banking on .800 OPS production with possible 20-20 production. This feels like good 10th-round value.
R11, P4: Ty France, 1B, Mariners
The first-time All-Star in 2022 has sported a 127 OPS+ while averaging 23 doubles, 15 home runs and 62 RBIs per 502 PAs over his last two full seasons. It’s not numbers that wow anyone away, but France will be in the middle of a powerful offense. In the 11th round, when I need a first baseman, why not? He’ll have plenty or run producing opportunities.
R12, P9: Merrill Kelly, SP, Diamondbacks
Kelly was very good last year for Arizona, pitching to a 3.37 ERA with a 3.65 FIP. He’s not going to blow your socks off with strikeout production (177 in 200.1 IP). But he’s a reliable, steady arm with a healthy five-pitch mix. I thought about also grabbing Tony Gonsolin or Joe Ryan, but I stuck with Kelly in the 12th round.
R13, P4: Vaughn Grissom, 2B, Braves
Outside of catcher, the second baseman spot was the last position player spot I needed to fill. I didn’t love the board, so I grabbed Grissom, who slashed .291/.353/.440 (121 OPS+) with five home runs, 18 RBIs and five stolen bases in 156 plate appearances. He was expected to get plenty of shortstop reps with Ozzie Albies healthy, but I drafted Grissom hoping that his second-base eligibility would last as long as possible.
(Update: Grissom got sent down to Triple-A on Monday. What a great start to the season 99 Problems! Lovely!)
R14, P9: Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees
Stanton had the worst year of his career in 2022. I can’t possibly see that repeating itself in 2023, where he could play up to 60 games in the outfield; when he consistently plays in the field, he plays better. I’m banking on a resurgent season for the 33-year-old, should he remain healthy.
R15, P4: Jeffrey Springs, SP/RP, Rays
Springs spent time as a reliever and starter in Tampa last year, pitching to a 2.46 ERA with 144 strikeouts in 135.1 innings. His usage remains a question mark, but trusting an arm who ranked in the 70th percentile or better in strikeout rate (71st), walk rate (79th), whiff rate (76th), barrel rate (75th) and chase rate (95th) with good extension, per Statcast. And he’s apart of an organization that develops pitching very well, so it felt like the right move in the 15th round.
R16, P9: Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Orioles
Rodriguez is another top pitching prospect who surged his way up the Baltimore minor-league system in 2022. I’m buying all the upside, even though he’ll have inevitable hiccups here and there.
R17, P4: Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, Orioles
The strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.6 career) isn’t ideal, but Mountcastle clobbered 51 extra-base hits a year after hitting 57, recording 85-plus RBIs in both seasons. I expect that offense to be better, so I think his ceiling is a possible 95-100 RBI bat in the middle-of-the-order in 2023, should he remain healthy.
R18, P9: Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Blue Jays
Merrifield had a down year last year and showed signs that he was physically breaking down after playing every game from 2019-21. But the 34-year-old should be an everyday utilityman in a loaded lineup with .280/.330/.420 potential. I’ll take the upside in the 18th-round.
R19, P4: Cal Raleigh, C, Mariners
My brain: “My team looks decent. Give me a catcher who hits bombs, bro.” Job: Done.
Do I feel great about my fantasy baseball team? Not particularly. The potential is there. The upside is there. But that could come crashing down with a few injuries or bad seasons, like it can for every Vendetta team crafted.
All I know is that I have 99 problems, and winning in the Vendetta league might certainly be one.
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