2023 NCAA Tournament South Region Preview
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No. 1 Seed Overview: Alabama Crimson Tide
The Crimson Tide (29-5, 16-2 SEC) enter the 2023 NCAA Tournament as the No. 1 overall seed. Nate Oats’ squad bullied their way through the SEC, winning the conference’s regular season and tournament titles. Future lottery pick Brandon Miller has been phenomenal, averaging 19.6 points and 8.3 rebounds on 45.1/40.1/85.6 shooting splits. Ohio transfer Mark Sears adds 12.5 points and 2.6 assists per game. They’ve got former top-50 recruits everywhere on the floor. Although a murder investigation threatened to derail their season (yes, really), Torvik has the Tide as the third-best team in the country since February 1, and they show no signs of slowing down.
Alabama’s weakness? Turnovers. At times their fast pace has them playing out of control, throwing the ball all over the gym. Where they make up for that is the defensive end. The Crimson Tide boast a top-five field goal defense and limit opponents to just 28.1% from three. Even if they give their opponents a few extra possessions, it doesn’t often work against them. Taking out Alabama requires a combination of high-powered offense, stalwart defense, and athleticism that few teams possess, especially at the pace Alabama plays.
Sleeper Team to Win Region: No. 6 Creighton Bluejays
Creighton is a unique team in that they have five guys who can give you 20 points any given night. Ryan Nembhard, Trey Alexander, Baylor Scheierman, Arthur Kaluma, and Ryan Kalkbrenner can go toe-to-toe with any other starting five in the country. Each of those guys averages double-digits, which is a real testament to the Bluejays’ balance. Kalkbrenner is an extremely impactful player with his interior scoring and rim protection, presenting a real matchup problem for opponents. Greg McDermott returned a number of players from the team that took eventual national champion Kansas to the wire in the Round of 32 last year. With the added experience, the No. 13 team in KenPom is looking to do now what they couldn’t do then and go on a deep run.
Double-Digit Seed Most Likely to Make Noise: Take Your Pick
This was the region where it was hardest for me to single out one double-digit seed. Honestly, I see the vision for a lot of them. Utah State has been one of the most efficient teams in the country over the past month and are one of the best three-point shooting teams in college basketball. NC State can certainly make a run if the backcourt tandem of Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner go supernova. College of Charleston went 31-3 this season and are very good from long range. The Furman Paladins are a deep, experienced team with a dangerous offense led by Mike Bothwell and Jalen Slawson. Even UC Santa Barbara could create some havoc and take out Baylor with a stellar performance by Ajay Mitchell. There’s certainly plenty of potential for upsets in this region – take your pick.
Most Intriguing First-Round Game: No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 Utah State
This game pits two extremely efficient offenses against each other and looks to be a high-scoring affair. Mizzou has been a fun surprise out of the SEC in Dennis Gates’ first season as head coach. Led by Kobe Brown (15.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 55.2% FG) and D’Moi Hodge (14.8 PPG, 40.1% 3PT), the Tigers finished fourth in the conference standings. While their offense delivers more often than not, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. The Tigers rank 178th in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
Utah State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Aggies are currently 18th on KenPom with a top-15 offense. They are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, hitting 39.3% of their triples as a team. Want another reason to like them? Their entire rotation is juniors and seniors. Oh, you want something else? Head coach Ryan Odom was the man behind the biggest upset in tournament history, leading No. 16 UMBC over No. 1 Virginia in 2018.
Watch this one for some really high-level offense. Whoever comes out on top certainly has the firepower to hang with No. 2 Arizona in the next round.
Prediction
Alabama has a pretty favorable path to the Elite Eight. The most difficult matchup the Crimson Tide could face is San Diego State’s stout defense, but the Aztecs will have their hands full with Charleston and the winner of Virginia/Furman. The bottom half of this bracket could descend into chaos, especially if squads like NC State, UCSB, and Utah State catch fire and pull off upsets in the first weekend. I’ve really liked Baylor, and you can never count them out with Scott Drew at the helm, but the Bears’ defense and rebounding have been lackluster at times. Ultimately, I like Creighton’s balance and talent throughout the roster to reach the region final. Give me the Alabama Crimson Tide to win the region off a strong showing from Brandon Miller.
Region Final Prediction: No. 1 Alabama over No. 6 Creighton
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