2023 Fantasy Baseball: Five pitchers to avoid based on rankings
The 2023 MLB season is upon us! It’s never too late to get into some fantasy baseball rankings! So let’s dive into my list of pitchers I’d be so-so on selecting, relative to their average position rank (rankings per ESPN). Let’s dive into it!
Max Scherzer, SP, Mets (SP4)
Scherzer and new Met arm Justin Verlander have similar distinctions: When healthy, neither have looked like they’ve aged all too much. Verlander won the AL Cy Young last year, and Scherzer pitched to a 2.29 ERA in 23 starts. Though he was limited to 145.1 innings and is entering his age-38 season with a ton of mileage on his arm. It may not matter at all when it’s all said and done. I’d likely take a swing in round 2/3-ish as a second-arm, but nothing sooner than that if I have other options on the board available.
Jacob deGrom, SP, Rangers (SP8)
deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball when he’s healthy. Though the right-hander hasn’t been healthy often across the last two seasons, making a combined 26 starts due to various arm/shoulder injuries. deGrom’s entering his age-35 season and is entering the stage of his career where his fantasy value is largely contingent on his health, not performance. There’s too wide of a range of outcomes for him to be a top-8 fantasy starter … for now.
Dylan Cease, SP, White Sox (SP13)
Cease was one of the best pitchers in the American League last year, finishing second in the Cy Young voting while posting a 2.20 ERA with 227 strikeouts in 184 frames. Most of periphials were off the charts, though Cease led the league in walks surrendered while posting a 3.10 FIP and a 3.50 xFIP; his ERA+ was 180, but I’m expecting some slight regression in 2023. Being the No. 13-best starter might be a better value than I’m giving him credit for — perhaps I’m blowing the walks/FIP out of proportion. But with how good a middle-of-the-pack White Sox squad does in a weak AL Central lowers Cease’s *fantasy* ceiling if he does regress, even though his Baseball Savant page from last year is filled with more red than a bucket of strawberries.
Felix Bautista, RP, Orioles (RP6)
Bautista had a very promising breakout season as Baltimore’s closer last year, finishing in the 92nd percentile or better in xBA (94th), whiff-percentage (92nd) and strikeout percentage (97th), per Baseball Savant. But how much better are the Orioles expected to be this year? Bautista only logged 15 saves and they still won 83 games, and they still have a shaky pitching staff, for the most part. Will Bautista have many more save opportunities? If so, it’s worth taking a flyer on him — but I wouldn’t have him as my sixth-ranked closer just yet, even though his talent is undeniable.
Daniel Bard, RP, Rockies (RP15)
Bard was sensational last year, but he’s entering his age-38 season for one of the worst teams in MLB and could be logging over half his save opportunities in Coors. His comeback story has been remarkable, but that’s hard to trust as the 15th-ranked closer/reliever because of the situation he’s in.
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