2023 Big Ten Tournament Preview and Predictions

2023 Big Ten Tournament Preview and Predictions

Amid all the commotion in the heart of the conference, Purdue, led by National Player of the Year frontrunner Zach Edey, waltzed into a regular season title. The conference has had no shortage of surprises, either — look no further than second-seeded Northwestern. Yes, in 2023, coach Chris Collins has his team not only positioned to nab its second-ever NCAA Tournament berth, but also in a spot where the ‘Cats need to win just two games to make the Big Ten Tournament title game. What a world.

With all that being said, let’s dive into the 2023 Big Ten Tournament.

One player to watch from each team

• Purdue: Zach Edey. Prospective National Player of the Year, need I say more?
• Northwestern: Brooks Barnhizer. NU’s Swiss Army knife has blossomed into a viable scoring threat and do-it-all wing for Collins’ bunch late in the season. He’s averaging 13.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game over the Wildcats’ last five contests.
• Indiana: Trayce Jackson-Davis. Similar to Edey, could it really be anyone else? All eyes will be on the presumptive All-American as he looks to secure the Hoosiers’ first-ever Big Ten Tournament title.
• Michigan State: A.J. Hoggard. The junior guard is averaging 6.1 assists per game, good for 10th in the country, but is sporadic for the Spartans. If Tom Izzo’s squad is going to make a run to the title game, it’ll likely have to be on the back of a prolific Hoggard.
• Iowa: Fran McCaffery. Will we get a FranCon 1 outburst in the United Center? I certainly hope so.
• Maryland: Hakim Hart. Let Hart cook, it’s as simple as that. The Terrapins are 16-3 this season when Hart tallies at least 10 points.
• Illinois: Matthew Mayer. The man who was left stricken by “caffeine poisoning” last week and responded with 24 points in a double-overtime victory over Michigan is definitely can’t miss television.
• Michigan: Kobe Bufkin. The 6-foot-4 guard averages the most minutes per game (33.7) on the Wolverines’ roster, and with Michigan in desperation mode, expect Juwan Howard to lean on Bufkin often.
• Rutgers: Cam Spencer. Spencer is one of the best shooters in the conference, if not the country, hitting 43.1% of his attempts from distance. Oh, and he’s no slouch defensively, averaging 2.2 steals per game, too.
• Penn State: Jalen Pickett. Pickett is the best guard in the conference, simple as that. Enjoy the playmaking spectacle he puts on.
• Nebraska: Keisei Tominaga. The Cornhuskers may very well may be the hottest team in the conference right now, having won six of their last eight. Tominaga has been the ignition for Nebraska’s run, averaging 20 points per game over that stretch.
• Wisconsin: Connor Essegian. The freshman guard is averaging 11.9 points and 3.5 rebounds per game, and he could forever etch his name in Badger lore if he can help Wisconsin rattle off a couple wins in Chicago.
• Ohio State: Brice Sensabaugh. The freshman has been dazzled on a struggling Buckeyes team. He’ll depart Columbus soon enough, though Ohio State has won two of its last three games.
• Minnesota: Jamison Battle. The Golden Gophers are really, really bad, but maybe Battle can capture a tinge of March magic.

Sleeper to win the Big Ten Tournament: Penn State

In the best and worst way possible, predicting the outcome of the 2023 Big Ten Tournament is a crapshoot. Everyone, spare Purdue, sits relatively in the same bubble, with little separation between the second- and 10th-best teams in the conference. Still, in a conference as unpredictable as ever, it would be fitting for that volatility to produce the ultimate fairytale. Such a reality would bode well for coach Micah Shrewsberry and Penn State.

Guards win in March. It’s a simple formula that has stood the test of time — and will likely continue to do so. The Nittany Lions have the best guard in the conference in Pickett and have surrounded him with a legion of shooters who can catch fire at a moment’s notice. They don’t crash the offensive glass, nor do they have much, if any, rim protection. With some hot shooting and a tinge of matchup help, Penn State could absolutely make a run in the Big Ten Tournament.

First Round Predictions

12. Wisconsin vs. 13. Ohio State

Man, do the predictive metrics love the Buckeyes. Even with a 13-18 record, including a 5-15 showing in Big Ten play, Ohio State and coach Chris Holtmann still possess a top-25 offense and sit among the top-60 teams in the country, per KenPom. The metrics aren’t as bullish on the Badgers, though. Wisconsin sits 72nd in KenPom’s rankings, notably boasting a top-30 defense. This is going to be an ugly, ugly game between two bad teams. Wisconsin may have won the lone regular-season meeting, but there’s something to be said for the improbable becoming reality.

Prediction: Ohio State 66, Wisconsin 65

11. Nebraska vs. 14. Minnesota

Nebraska is hot; Minnesota is not.

Prediction: Nebraska 75, Minnesota 61

Second Round Predictions

8. Michigan vs. 9. Rutgers

I might be beating a dead horse here, but the Scarlet Knights just haven’t been the same since Mawot Mag went out for the season. Meanwhile, Michigan has looked like a team reformed in recent weeks. The Wolverines are 6-4 in their last 10 games, though all four defeats have been two-possession games. Say what you want about Michigan’s at-large hopes but in a battle between a desperate Wolverines squad and a middling Scarlet Knights bunch, give me Hunter Dickinson and Co.

Prediction: Michigan 68, Rutgers 63

5. Iowa vs. 13. Ohio State

Two top-25 offenses, per KenPom, get set for battle in this second-round clash. The Hawkeyes and Buckeyes split the regular season series, each team protecting homecourt. At this point in the season, Iowa is far and away the better squad. They’ve simply got more talent and I’m hard pressed to believe that Ohio State would be the team to send McCaffery’s squad packing.

Prediction: Iowa 85, Ohio State 71

7. Illinois vs. 10. Penn State

Penn State swept the regular season series between the two programs, defeating Illinois by at least 12 points in both contests. The highs of this Fighting Illini squad are up there with some of the best teams in the country, but the lows are so, so discouraging. I’m a big believer that it’s nearly impossible to beat a team three times in the same season, but Pickett and the Nittany Lions seem to have the Illini’s number this season.

Prediction: Penn State 77, Illinois 73

6. Maryland vs. 11. Nebraska

The Terrapins and Cornhuskers split the regular season series, each squad nabbing their victory at home. Though Nebraska, led by the electric Tominaga, enters the United Center on a tear, Maryland is statistically better in nearly every advanced metric category. The Terrapins also boast the best player in this matchup in guard Jahmir Young and likely field the next two or three best players between the pair of teams, too. Expect Maryland to get it done here.

Prediction: Maryland 70, Nebraska 62

*** Disclaimer: This writer is in the grind of finals season and will complete his written analysis later Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning, before the second round starts. Regardless, his matchups and score predictions are below. ***

Quarterfinals Predictions

1. Purdue vs. 8. Michigan

Prediction: Purdue 74, Michigan 67

4. Michigan State vs. 5. Iowa

Prediction: Michigan State 76, Iowa 74

2. Northwestern vs. 10. Penn State

Prediction: Northwestern 65, Penn State 58

3. Indiana vs. 6. Maryland

Prediction: Indiana 76, Maryland 71

Semifinals Predictions

1. Purdue vs. 4. Michigan State

Prediction: Michigan State 71, Purdue 69

2. Northwestern vs. 3. Indiana

Prediction: Indiana 75, Northwestern 64

2023 Big Ten Tournament Title Game Prediction

3. Indiana vs. 4. Michigan State

Prediction: Indiana 78, Michigan State 71

***

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