2023 Already Offering More For Phillies To Overcome; 7th-Day Stretch
In late June last year, everyone thought the moment that would define the 2022 Phillies involved a fastball thrown by a Padres pitcher to Bryce Harper. They were right — just in a way bigger and more beautiful than they ever could have imagined. Last year was full of bedlam for the Phillies long before Harper’s signature swing that clinched the festivities that defined the team’s first home games since last year’s World Series. At this time a year ago, Harper was less than two weeks from tearing his UCL. The Phillies were less than two months away from firing their manager and losing their starting second baseman. The same night a fastball from Blake Snell broke Harper’s thumb, Zach Eflin made his final start as a Phillie due to knee soreness that sidelined him for over two months and forced him into the bullpen.
Adversity is something the Phillies are not strangers to, and that was true long before last season. They were just better equipped to handle it in 2022 thanks to improved communication throughout the organization. It helped numerous players thrive in their moment in the Majors when given the call from Triple-A. Darick Hall and Nick Maton mashed. Bailey Falter was a reliable choice to get the ball every fifth or sixth day. Bryson Stott and José Alvarado spent some time in Lehigh Valley in May and came through so many times the rest of the season.
Through nine games in 2023, adversity appears to be a theme for the Phillies once again. They have already lost their top two first basemen and No. 3 starter. There is a buzz around Harper, but he is still months — that months with an “s” — away from returning. A starter has reached the sixth inning just once so far, and the Phillies lost that game. They are 3-6, and that is hardly a death sentence. But it is concerning because the path towards a turnaround is murkier than it was a season ago.
Even last year, when the Phillies pitching stepped up so many times and even the defense had some spectacular moments in October, the Phillies were a team built to slug. Their biggest addition this offseason is a shortstop who, among other tools, possesses an elite bat. Most of the rule changes Major League Baseball made this offseason were made to facilitate offense and increase scoring. So, it is concerning that after scoring seven runs in their opener, the Phillies have yet to exceed five since. It’s a bit weird because most of the individual numbers look solid. Only three of the nine hitters in Sunday’s lineup currently sport an OPS+ below 100 (league average). Two of those are J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber, whose turnaround is a “when, not if” situation. Maybe that’s the missing piece to get things on track.
Of course, things are rarely that simple. Part of the reason why the Phillies were able to stay afloat last summer without Harper was that they were 16-6 in June before Harper went down. It is always easier to maintain a trend than reverse it. And other than a two-week blip in September, the Phillies largely settled into a state of solid baseball from June on. There were highs and lows within that stretch. But good feelings were never too far away or too far in the past. Both parts were equally important to ending the National League’s longest postseason drought and setting up a magical October.
The Phillies have not looked like the type of team capable of overcoming the obstacles that have already presented themselves, let alone others that will reveal themselves in time. Jake Cave, Josh Harrison, Cristian Pache and Kody Clemens are hitting a combined .111 in 36 at-bats. Yunior Marté lasted all of two ineffective appearances before being demoted. Taijuan Walker has issued eight free passes in the first nine innings of a four-year, $72 million contract. Craig Kimbrel has walked five in the first 4.1 innings of a one-year, $10 million pact, which feels particularly ominous for a Phillies team who have whiffed on big-name reliever signings in recent years at an almost comical rate. Almost.
Last year, the Phillies received significant contributions from their bench players and the middle of the rotation (Kyle Gibson had a respectable 4.08 ERA before bombing September) and received a summer of quality bullpen work following a dismal start. There are other players who could fill some of the above roles if the players currently in them continue to falter (Walker and Kimbrel are different conversations but also have better track records).
It is just nine games; the 2022 Phillies had exactly one more win through nine games than this year’s Phillies. But that team could not imagine the challenges they were going to face or the ways in which they were going to overcome them. In 2023, potentially the biggest roadblocks the Phillies will face are already right in front of them. Maybe that makes the push through them this year that much sweeter. Maybe it makes the grind to chip away at them that much more frustrating. It is only nine games, but answers will start to reveal themselves soon.
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