2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 3 Preview: New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Note: This 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs preview is a dual article by Colson Valby and Andrew McGuinness. Assume a section (denoted by a headline or bold text) is written by Colson unless otherwise noted.
It’s time for the conference finals of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs. The two-time defending Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning finally have an opponent for the Eastern Conference Final: the New York Rangers. The Bolts finished their four-game series sweep of the President’s Trophy winning Florida Panthers on May 23rd. The Rangers broke the streak of home wins in their series against Carolina, defeating them this past Monday in Game 7 by a 6-2 final. In this case, Tampa has the edge in stamina, as the Rangers will only have one day off between series after their win.
Tampa has been an Eastern Conference juggernaut for the past seven seasons, making the playoffs all but once and reaching the ECF 5 out of those 7 seasons. The question prior to the 2020 SCF was could they get over the hump? With the 2010s dynasties of Chicago and Pittsburgh and Alex Ovechkin’s Cup win things of the past, Tampa was up next. Building the core of the team for around 8 to 10 years, it was only a matter of time before it all came together for the Bolts. The champs look to seize a 3 peat and bring the Cup back home to the Bay, only eight more wins separate them from doing so.
The Rangers, on the other hand, have been looking for a resurgence. The glory days from 1994 with Mark Messier raising the Cup on home ice drift in their fans’ heads, wondering if the Blueshirts can bring the Cup back to the Big Apple. Ranger fans have been desperate for some postseason success, watching their rival neighbor the Islanders make the ECF back to back years before falling to the hands of Tampa. Also watching the Devils in 2012 defeat them at the hands of Adam Henrique in Game 6 OT. The Blueshirts finally made it to the Cup Finals in 2014, but losing in Game 5 in double OT. A chance to earn redemption will have to go through the back-to-back defending champions, though.
Recent History: The Bolts and Rangers have only met once in the past 10 years, in the 2015 Eastern Conference Finals. Tampa was led by a monster goalie by the name of Ben Bishop, with Henrik Lundqvist in the opposite cage. This series was filled with tons of stars, much like this year. The Lightning had their main core of Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman and Steven Stamkos, while the Rangers had players like Rick Nash, Ryan McDonagh and Chris Kreider. The intense series went seven. And much like the Panthers elimination game, Tampa Bay clinched the series with a shutout.
Season Series: The Rangers made easy work of the Bolts during the regular season, sweeping them 3-0. However, 2 of the 3 losses came over the holidays when Tampa was dealing with COVID issues. A 4-3 shootout loss for Tampa followed up a few days later by a 4-0 loss. Finally, a 2-1 loss for the Bolts with star center Mika Zibanejad scoring with 16 seconds left in the 3rd. Shesterkin played well in those three games, something worth noting as we see this series unfold.
The Road Thus Far: The Rangers as the Metro No. 2 seed, they had the task of beating the Penguins in the first round. It was a battle, with the series going the distance, and NYR winning in 7 games. Next, they faced arguably the best defensive team in the East, the Carolina Hurricanes. Rod Brind’Amour had his squad ready, going all 7 games with the Rangers. But an unfortunate injury for netminder Antti Raanta, the Canes would collapse; just as Raanta’s groin did, losing on home ice for the first time all playoffs, 6-2.
The champs were dealt a tough task in Round 1 as the Atlantic #3 seed. They had to go across the Northern Border to face a hungry Auston Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The star-studded Leafs had a chance to close out the series twice, but history repeated itself and the Leafs collapsed again. Next, they faced the Panthers in the Battle of Florida. Supposed to be an exciting rematch from last year, now it was called the Beatdown of Florida. The Tampa Bay Lightning outscored the Panthers 13-3, and got a nice break while the Rangers-Canes series finished up; which could make a difference for the status of injured star Brayden Point.
Tampa Bay Wins Because (Colson): The Champs are saving their best hockey for the best time. They got off to a rough start in Game 1 versus Toronto, losing 5-0. Ever since then, they have been in every game and have powered through to the East Finals. Surprising performances by the bottom-six of the Bolts with players like Ross Colton, Corey Perry and Nick Paul producing quite a bit over the last two series. Obviously with Brayden Point out, someone had to step up, and they are doing so.
Yes, Tampa’s offense is amazing, but a lot of the credit has to go to the Big Cat, Andrei Vasilevskiy. Ever since Game 7 of the Leafs series where he allowed 1 goal, he has been stellar. The 2021 Conn Smythe winner has bailed the Lightning out many times. He’s undoubtedly been the backbone of this team the past three years.
Special teams have played a big role in the postseason for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Not as successful as they’d hoped for the Powerplay, but the PK has been amazing. Obviously, they are missing their star Brayden Point for the PP. But if he returns, I would expect a surge from him. Tampa’s PK ranks 3rd in the post season, just shy of 88%. If Tampa continues their ways from the Florida series, they have a good shot to win.
New York Wins Because (Andrew): They’ve already proved they can overcome teams better than them. The Penguins and Hurricanes were two of the better play driving teams in the regular season and outshot and out-chanced the Rangers in their respective playoff series; Pittsburgh by the highest margin of any playoff series this year (62.05% expected goals). Yet the Rangers are still standing. There’s some luck involved; New York hasn’t faced a healthy, starting goaltender yet in this playoffs. And they’re about to match up with arguably the best goaltender in the world in Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Of course, the Rangers also have a candidate for that title in Igor Shesterkin. Since Game 5 of the Pittsburgh series, Shesterkin has been the game changer he was all season. He hasn’t allowed more than three goals in his last ten games and held the Hurricanes to two or less in six of seven contests. That’s despite facing the most expected goals against per 60 of any goaltender in these playoffs (min. 3 games played), per Natural Stat Trick. Moneypuck.com’s model credits Shesterkin with 11.4 goals saved above expected, the most of any goaltender in these playoffs. No disrespect to Jack Campbell or Sergei Bobrovsky, but Shesterkin is easily the best goaltender the Lightning have faced in these playoffs; maybe even in any of their 11 playoff series over the last three seasons.
From a scoring standpoint, New York’s star players have largely been as advertised. Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox are three and four in playoff scoring, respectively. Chris Kreider’s eight goals put him in a tie for third. Artemi Panarin is sixth in the playoffs by Corey Sznajder’s Game Score metric, which accounts for shots, passes, zone entries, and exits. Andrew Copp is just outside the top by the same measurement. Ryan Strome started to get going offensively towards the end of the Carolina series. It’s a bit surprising just how badly the Rangers have fared at 5-on-5 given the amount of talent they have on their roster.
Not lacking for talent or 5-on-5 results, however, is a line that has played nearly four times as many minutes together as they did in the regular season: the kid line of Alexis Lafrenière, Filip Chytil, and Kappo Kakko. The trio has outshot, out-chanced, and most importantly (by a 7-5 margin) outscored opponents. Chytil was very solid in transition during the regular season and has been even better in the playoffs. One thing the Rangers do very well is play in transition; with the exception of Kreider, basically all of their big name players are threats on the rush. They could provide an infusion of secondary scoring capable of matching Tampa Bay’s very productive third line.
Of course, Florida was the league’s best team in transition, and Tampa Bay shut them down pretty quickly. The Rangers will need to take care of the puck in the neutral zone and adapt if the long stretch passes that both they and the Panthers rely on are taken away by the Lightning. New York has actually done a solid job of controlling the neutral zone in these playoffs, which is surprisingly led by their defense.
New York is slightly better than league average in entries with chances allowed per 60 minutes; but when it rains in the Rangers zone, it absolutely monsoons. New York allows 3.6 expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5, second worst in the playoffs and the worst among teams remaining by nearly a full goal per 60 minutes. Each of New York’s defense pairs are sub 41% in expected goals share, meaning their best shot at containing Tampa Bay’s top line is crossing their fingers and hoping Adam Fox never gives up the puck. He and Ryan Lindgren have both been strong at breaking the puck out of their own zone, at least. The K’Andre Miller-Jacob Trouba can match the physicality Tampa Bay’s bottom-six can bring. But they’ve been severely out-chanced so far in these playoffs.
Because of that, the other absolute necessity for the Rangers to win this series, aside from Shesterkin standing on his head, is their high-end scorers cashing in on the vast majority of their chances. That needs to be true at 5-on-5 and especially on the power-play. The latter has been the Robin to the Batman that Shesterkin has been for the Rangers in these playoffs. Despite converting at an even higher rate in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, the underlying numbers paint a dark picture. New York’s PP produced 8.51 expected goals per 60 in the regular season, 4th best. But it’s dropped to 6.34 in the playoffs, the fourth worst mark of the tournament. It came through big time in both of their Game 7s. But it needs to generate more consistent chances, especially against a strong Lightning penalty kill.
There aren’t really any notes on Zibanejad and Kreider; both have been fantastic in these playoffs, picking up where they left off in the regular season. But Artemi Panarin could stand to shoot the puck more. There’s a fine line between being careless and too cautionary in the playoffs, and it feels like Panarin has erred towards the latter a bit too often. Panarin’s averaging a little less than one fewer shot per 60 at 5-on-5 in these playoffs, and while his biggest strength is his playmaking, he is a three-time 30-goal scorer. A few more shots could open up more playmaking opportunities and help get Kreider a bit more involved on the PP from a goal-scoring standpoint.
The Pick:
Colson — This East Final has a lot of storylines, and will be a great series to watch. There’s superstars on both teams, both goalies are playing well, and it will be interesting to see what gameplan New York brings to the champs. Will the regular season momentum carry over for NY, or will Tampa continue its reign and make a third straight trip to the Finals? Tampa looks too strong right now, sweeping Florida without Brayden Point and has a ton of rest on their side. Tampa continues their dominance, bottom-six produced more goals leaving Point more time to rest. Vasy stays hot in net, and the Bolts head to the Finals for a three-peat. Lightning in 5.
Andrew — The cold truth is that the Lightning are simply a better team than the Rangers. Tampa Bay checks off just about all of the boxes and has elite talent and outstanding depth at every position, even accounting for the murky status of one of its most lethal forwards. New York relies heavily on a formula depending on special teams and goaltending, one generally seen as unsustainable come the playoffs. That obviously hasn’t been the case so far. But maintaining its success against easily their toughest challenge yet would be not just this Rangers’ team’s biggest triumph yet; it would represent overcoming one of the most daunting tasks in their lengthy, illustrious history. And it’s one I just don’t think the young, overmatched Rangers have in them. Tampa Bay in 5.
Oddly Specific Prediction (Andrew): This is an idea I always borrow from one of the best hockey writers, The Athletic’s Sean McIndoe (aka Down Goes Brown). The idea is very self-explanatory: make a very specific and semi-random prediction for each series. The idea is his; the prediction themselves is mine. The Lightning eliminated the Rangers in the 2015 Eastern Conference Final with a 2-0 victory at MSG. Alex Killorn scored the game-winner, and Ondrej Palat added an insurance marker later on. Everything will be the same this year; except for the order of the goalscorers in the series clincher. Palat will get the GWG this time, with Killorn putting it out of reach.
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All Advanced Stats are 5-on-5 unless otherwise stated and via Natural Stat Trick, Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones (subscribe to his Patreon here) and Moneypuck.com
