2022 NBA Free Agency Primer
The NBA title race has been run and won. All of the surprise and intrigue of the NBA draft is in the past. Now, it’s just about time for NBA free agency season.
With free agency opening on July 1, let’s take a look at the main players in this season’s free agency class.
We’re going to examine the situations governing a mix of players that are both restricted and unrestricted, as well as a few folks that have yet to pick up their player options, thus leaving them in limbo.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
Beal has apparently made his free agency decision, though is yet to make any announcements either privately to the Wizards or to the public. It is expected, however, that Beal will opt out of his $36.4 million player option this offseason and sign a supermax deal with the Wizards, starting at $42.7 million in 2023 and worth a whopping $248 million over five years.
Beal is a gifted scorer who averaged back-to-back 30-plus point-per-game campaigns before struggling this past year. Expect him to bounce back and lead a team full of young prospects, the underrated Kyle Kuzma (a turnaround from his vastly overrated days as a Laker) and the enigmatic Kristaps Porzingis back to the playoffs.
Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns
The options have dried up somewhat for Ayton after the NBA Draft.
The restricted free agent was expected to draw huge interest from the Pistons and Hornets who both drafted their future starting centres in the mid-first round. That said, the Suns are surely regretting not inking Ayton to a max deal last offseason.
The 23-year-old has improved year on year to the point where he’s a near 20/10 player who still has lots of room to grow at both ends of the court.
Ayton has proven himself one of the rare 7-footers that doesn’t get played off the court despite not having a devastating low post game or deep range, thanks to his ability to defend on the perimeter and mash smaller players down low.
Despite the Pistons and Hornets (as well as Dallas, who traded for Christian Wood prior to the draft) no longer being on the board, expect Ayton to still be at least something close to a max player next season, though his destination will now more than likely come through a sign-and-trade rather than an offer sheet.
Expect Atlanta, Indiana, Utah and San Antonio’s names to be mentioned, though don’t count out the Raptors. Masai Ujiri has a way of worming his way into discussions like these.
Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls
The Bulls made all of their recent moves with the intention of competing and, in turn, convincing Zach LaVine that his best future in the NBA laid as a Bull. A less than satisfactory campaign – admittedly ruined by injury – where he lost his status as the offensive fulcrum wasn’t the best advertisement to their star guard.
LaVine has already tried to bail from the Windy City once before – his current contract is a matched offer sheet from Sacramento – and there have been numerous reports of mutual interest with the Blazers. The Blazers’ drafting of Shaedon Sharpe, however, may indicate that interest has cooled.
It’s a small sample size, but the Bulls were genuinely exciting when healthy last season. As DeMar DeRozan ages, LaVine should regain his top dog status. He’d be wise to stick around. Either way, he’s getting a max deal.
James Harden, Philadelphia 76ers
Harden may take himself off the free agency market in a couple of days by opting into his $47.4 million player option.
After a season marred by nagging injuries and a drop in performance that may or may not be related to said injuries, Harden would be wise to take the money and play a ‘prove it’ season before signing one more long term, big money deal.
If Harden does opt out, he’s likely to take a long-term extension at a significantly lower per-season value than he would be used to. That might tell us something about the state of those hamstrings, too.
Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets
The other candidate to take himself out of NBA free agency is Irving. It was reported in the last 24 hours that Kyrie will opt into his $36.5 million deal after failing to find a team willing to engage in a sign-and-trade for the gifted, though enigmatic scorer.
That should, technically speaking, exclude Irving from this article, but there’s always something to discuss when it comes to Kyrie.
He told Shams Charania of The Athletic:
“Normal people keep the world going, but those who dare to be different lead us into tomorrow. I’ve made my decision to opt in. See you in the fall.”
VIA The Athletic
Sooo….is Kyrie saying that by opting into a $36 million deal that he’s different? Or, given that every single one of us would have done the same thing, is he implying that he’s an ‘everyman’? A regular Joe?
As it always is, Kyrie Irving is a riddle, wrapped in mystery, inside a far too clever for his own good pretentious blowhard.
Miles Bridges, Charlotte Hornets
Despite seeing his 3-point percentage drop to just 33.1% last season, Miles Bridges enjoyed a breakout campaign. He posted 20.2 points, and even seven boards, 3.8 assists and close to a block and steal a night.
Long known for his highlight reel dunks, Bridges’ game off the bounce and in the mid-range showed greatly increased maturity:
The 24-year-old is a versatile defender (if not as lockdown as namesake Mikal) who is showing offensive chops that many didn’t think he had. Assuming his outside shot bounces back, we could be looking at a borderline All-Star next season.
He’ll get something close to $30 million a season, at least. This writer hopes that (barring an unlikely move to Utah) Bridges stays in Charlotte. Hornets’ fans deserve to have nice things.
Jalen Brunson, Dallas Mavericks
Let’s get this out of the way: Jalen Brunson deserves to get paid this off season.
The 26-year-old will get his bag, more than likely from his current employers in Dallas or the New York Knicks, who recently employed Jalen’s dad Rick as an assistant coach (to be clear, this isn’t the naked nepotism play it seems – Brunson the elder was a Thibs assistant in Minnesota and Chicago in days past).
Brunson will get something in the vicinity of $25 million a season with the years dependent on where he signs. It must be asked, though: is Brunson worth that money?
Brunson’s value skyrocketed in Dallas’ first round series against Utah’s deplorable perimeter defense. He came back to earth somewhat against Phoenix and struggled against Golden State. The league has a long history of overpaying based on a single strong playoff run. Brunson’s run wasn’t even a full NBA playoffs!
He may well prove worth the money invested in him, but this writer suspects that there will be a tinge of buyer’s remorse around Brunson in a season or two.
Also, let’s just leave this here:
Jusuf Nurkic, Portland Trail Blazers
When healthy, Nurkic is still a beast. Before being shut down for the year with a foot complaint (if the Blazers hadn’t fired up the ol’ tank then Nurk would likely have played through the injury) the Bosnian was putting up 15 points and 11.1 boards, though a little worryingly, a career low 0.6 blocks per game.
Nurkic is likely worth more than the $12 million a season his last contract paid him, but his injury history may restrict his value somewhat. Unless the Blazers make a derisory offer, he’ll likely stay in Oregon. Expect a deal in the $12-15 million per season range.
Anfernee Simons, Portland Trail Blazers
Simons belatedly proved himself a starting calibre NBA baller with both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum sidelined. In 30 starts last season, he gave Portland 22 points (on an eye raising 60% true shooting) and 5.5 assists, averaging 17.3 points per game overall.
With McCollum now a Pelican, the Blazers will clearly want to keep Simons on as their long-term starting two-guard. He’ll get north of $20 million a season to stay in the Pacific Northwest.
The only possible holdup will be the left knee injury that ended Simons’ season. Assuming that his medicals come up clean, he’ll be a Blazer for a long time to come.
Russell Westbrook, Los Angeles Lakers
Let’s be totally honest, here. Is there a snowflake’s chance in hell Westbrook turns down his $47 million player option for the 2023 season? No, he will surely opt in.
The real intrigue around Westbrook is whether he plays the season – or even starts the season – as a Laker. Given his presence at the press conference for new coach Darvin Ham, it looks likely that the guard will start the season in Lakers colours.
A trade, however difficult to construct, is always lurking in the shadows, though.
Malik Monk, Los Angeles Lakers
Monk’s agent must be tearing his hair out after the 24-year-old guard, coming off a career year as a Laker, openly torpedoed his value by admitting he’d take less money to remain in Tinseltown.
The one-year, $1.8 million contract he signed for last season was designed as a ‘prove it’ deal to earn him a longer, more lucrative future deal. Whilst Monk will undoubtedly get a long-term deal, he’s surely cost himself a rather large chunk of money with his comments this week.
PJ Tucker, Miami Heat
He’s as old as the hills, but Tucker is still a valuable defender for a championship contender.
Despite the Miami Heat allowing Tucker to flex his offensive wings a little more that the Bucks and Rockets did, Tucker has declined his $7.4 million player option. Practically every championship contender will be knocking at the 37-year-old’s door.
Expect another one-plus-one offer in the $6-8 million range.
Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks
Robinson is surely a lock to return to the Knicks, though his re-signing is likely to be one of the later deals inked. This is primarily because the former second-round pick has a tiny $1.8 million cap hold. That means that the Knicks can focus on signing any external free agents – Hello Mr. Brunson! – knowing that they can use Robinson’s Bird rights to extend him later in the offseason.
Deliberately leaving a free agent unsigned isn’t without it’s obvious risks, though.
Robinson is still only 24 years old and the epitome of a modern, low usage centre. On a team with high usage players in Julius Randle, RJ Barrett and potentially Jalen Brunson, having a shot blocking menace that subsists on a diet of dunks is a needed luxury.
Kevon Looney, Golden State Warriors
Looney was quietly a major piece of the Warriors’ title march. He’s not exactly going to decimate you with his repertoire of offensive moves, but he’s a strong rebounder – especially on the offensive glass – and his ability to hang on when isolated on the perimeter allows coach Steve Kerr to mix-and-match defensively.
Given Golden State’s perilous cap situation, he’s borderline irreplaceable despite the theoretical presence of James Wiseman in his rearview mirror.
Looney will come close to doubling the $5.2 million he made this past season.
Otto Porter Jr., Golden State Warriors
Porter was a key depth piece of Golden State’s championship run. The Warriors won’t be fortunate enough to get him on a minimum contract again this time around. It’s likely that they will have to pay Porter something along the lines of their $6 million taxpayer exception.
With his length, defensive acumen and deadeye shooting, he’s just about as irreplaceable on this Warriors list, barring a massive step up from Jonathan Kuminga in year two.
Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers
The variance on what could happen with Sexton this offseason is vast.
Two seasons ago, Sexton’s 24.3 points per game – on 48/37/82 shooting – put him just inside the NBA’s top 20 scorers. He followed that up with an inefficient 16 points a game in just 11 appearances before a knee injury prematurely finished his latest campaign.
Maybe, if injury didn’t interfere, Sexton would have recovered from an early slump to something approaching his 2021 numbers. But what if he didn’t? That’s what NBA decision makers need to weigh up. As the late Bob Ross would say: we’ve got some big decisions to make in our little world.
At 6-foot-1 and slight of build, Sexton is a defensive liability. That makes his offensive projections imperative to his value.
If his 2021 form is reliable, Sexton is a gifted bucket getter but a poor table setter. At his best, he’s a new age Lou Williams – a genuine game changer as an all-offense sixth man. That type of player is worth a packet in a trade or on the open market.
If Sexton’s poor start to 2022 is a truer reflection of his future – or even if his knee injury limits his speed and agility – then he is nothing more than an inefficient gunner who doesn’t bring nearly enough to the table to offset that inefficiency.
There is a very big chance that a team is going to look very clever, or indeed very foolish in bringing Sexton aboard on a long-term deal.
Marvin Bagley III, Detroit Pistons
The much (and fairly) maligned Bagley might be the latest case of the Sacramento Kings killing an NBA career before it even starts. It’s no coincidence that Bagley, after finally getting out of his Kangz purgatory, averaged 14.6 points and 6.8 rebounds on 56% shooting as a Piston.
Bagley’s issues remain: he’s not enough of a shooter to stretch the floor and isn’t an adequate rim protector. That makes him a tough player to fit into a line-up. The talent as a scorer is enough for the Pistons to look to bring him back long term, though.
Tyus Jones, Memphis Grizzlies
Jones certainly won’t generate the same interest as Brunson, though he is perhaps a safer pick for a team looking for a solid point guard.
He’s also a different player to Brunson. Whereas the Mavericks guard is a scorer first, Jones is an NBA throwback: he’s safe with the ball, runs a precise offense, can score a little when needed and plays solid defense. He’s not going to start for a playoff team, but he’s the sort of key reserve that every top team needs to run its second unit. He’s also going to come in at about 60% of what Brunson will cost.
Jones has a solid thing going in Memphis but must understand that his opportunities will be limited whilst Ja Morant runs the show. How Jones weighs up personal ambition against team success will prove fascinating.
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