2022 AFC Wild-Card Preview: Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Los Angeles Chargers will be heading to Florida to take on the AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars in a battle of the young, franchise quarterbacks. This will be a rematch of their Week 3 matchup, which saw the Jaguars dismantle the Chargers 38-10 in Los Angeles.
Now, with the game at home for the Jaguars, can Justin Herbert and company get the win back when it matters most, or will Trevor Lawrence continue to lead this team on a historic win streak?
Here are three reasons why each team will win this 2022 AFC wild-card matchup, followed by my prediction.
10-7 Los Angeles Chargers @ 9-8 Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, Jan. 14, 6:15 p.m. ET, NBC
Three Reasons Why the Los Angeles Chargers Will Win
1. Fully Healthy Justin Herbert
If you recall, their week three matchup was the week after Herbert had his ribs broken in the game against the Kansas City Chiefs. It was a miracle Herbert even played in that game, clearly, not even 50 percent let alone near 100 percent. Now, he is as close to 100 percent as anyone can be at this point in the season heading into this 2022 AFC wild-card game, which should allow him to be his athletic, gunslinging self.
2. The Air Attack
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ pass defense is horrendous. They finished 27th in the league in YPG and in the bottom half of the league in interceptions. This bodes well for the aerial assault the Chargers like to throw at you (pun intended). Los Angeles finished third in the league in passing yards per game and third in completion percentage. This would be a good week to potentially take any over bets for Herbert passing yard props.
3. All Hail Austin Ekeler
Austin Ekeler is a complete game-changer for this Los Angeles offense. With Mike Williams not likely to go this week after suffering a scary back injury last week, look for Ekeler to be heavily involved in both the run and pass game. He has seen double-digit targets five times this year, including a 16-target game in week six against the Denver Broncos. I would expect him to get game six during the 2022 AFC wild-card.
Why the Jacksonville Jaguars Will Win
1. Lawrence and Order
Lawrence rebounded from an awful rookie campaign to show incredible development in Year 2. He threw for more than 4,100 yards and more than doubled his touchdown count from 12 to 25 while cutting his interceptions in half from 17 to eight. He has a four-game stretch this year where he threw for 906 yards with 11 touchdowns and only one interception. He torched this Chargers’ defense earlier this year for 262 yards and three touchdowns and should look to do the same again this Saturday.
2. Travis Etienne Should Have a Field Day
It’s not that long ago when we were told not to eat the cheese on Travis Etienne. Boy, that take didn’t end up great, did it? Etienne would end up finishing ninth in the league with 1,125 yards rushing and eighth in yards per carry with 5.1. The Chargers finished dead last in the league in run defense, averaging a whopping 5.4 YPC. Etienne might have himself a day, consider his over as well.
3. The Jaguars Defense Is Flying
The Jacksonville Jaguars have won five of their last six, helping lead them to an AFC South title. But it wasn’t the offense that was the catalyst for it, but their defense. During this stretch, they have held four of those opponents to under 23 points in every matchup. Those four teams are:
- Tennessee twice
- New York Jets
- Houston Texans
Now, I know what you’re saying. No, it doesn’t matter that those offenses aren’t world-beaters. It’s about confidence. This defense has been an anchor for this team on the road to a berth in the 2022 AFC wild-card, and just might be the key to a victory.
Prediction
I am rolling with the Jacksonville Jaguars in this one. I am as big a fan of Justin Herbert as anyone, and I am glad he is reaching the playoffs for the first time in his career. But I do not trust Brandon Staley as far as I can throw him, and this Jaguars team is just too hot right now. Do I think they can compete for a Super Bowl? Maybe not. But they will win their AFC wild-card matchup and move on.
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