2022-23 Premier League relegation Preview
As we approach the business end of the Premier League season, the relegation battle is well and truly on. There are seven teams who could potentially go down: West Ham, Wolves, Nottingham Forest, Leeds United, Everton, Bournemouth, and Southampton. In this article, I’ll be explaining what relegation actually is, and who’s most likely to be going down.
What is relegation?
It’s a rather simple concept. The three worst teams in the Premier League at the end of the season get relegated to the second division of the English football pyramid, known confusingly as the Championship. They are then replaced by the three best teams from the Championship.
The teams in the Premier League are ordered first by point total. If teams have the same points then they are ordered by goal difference, which is the number of goals you scored subtracted by the amount you conceded. If teams still can’t be separated, whichever team scored the most goals finishes higher.
It’s a very effective system in weeding out complacency. The teams have no right to stay in the Premier League. Unlike American sports, football club owners don’t own part of the league, they are separate entities. So, if they’re not good enough, they get sent packing.
For some clubs, relegation can be a death sentence. Their revenues drop, as the Championship’s TV deal is about seven times smaller than the Premier League’s, and Championship clubs get almost 8.5 times less money from sponsorships than Premier League clubs. In total, Premier League clubs make about 6.6 times more money than their Championship counterparts. The financial discrepancy is so vast that the playoff game to get into the Premier League is known as the ‘richest game in football.’
As a result, it’s a lot harder to hold onto players. The Championship is a lot less appealing than the Premier League, and they can earn a lot more money elsewhere.
Clubs still get what’s called ‘parachute payments‘ (a percentage of the TV rights deal but smaller than what they got before) but getting relegated is a massive blow to both a club’s finances and their reputation. Some never recover.
Who is at risk of relegation?
Now that we’ve established the stakes for the clubs involved, it’s time to look at who’s the most at risk this season. This article was written ahead of game week 25 so odds and points totals may have changed.
13th – Nottingham Forest
Points: 25
Goal difference: -20
Recent form: DLWDW
Next five games: West Ham (A), Everton (H), Tottenham (A), Newcastle (H), Wolves (A)
Odds they go down (courtesy of BetMGM): +240
Forest are an odd side. They essentially signed a new squad of players over both the Summer and January transfer window. The quality of the new signings is variable to say the least. Keylor Navas is still a fantastic keeper, but it’s unclear if new signings Jonjo Shelvey and Andre Ayew have much left in the tank. Renan Lodi and Felipe started a significant number of games for a title-winning Atletico Madrid two years ago, but there’s a reason why Atletico felt the need to let them go.
It feels like a side full of cast-offs and rejects. Jesse Lingard wasn’t wanted anymore by Manchester United, neither was Chris Wood or Shelvey by Newcastle nor Willy Boly by Wolves. The pull of the Premier League is very real, but Nottingham Forest hasn’t been in the Premier League for a very long time. There’s a reason they’ve been able to sign some of these players, and it’s not the appeal of their European Cup wins in 1979 and 1980. It’s because they’re not good enough for better clubs.
There are some exceptions to this. Morgan Gibbs-White and Danilo are both quality midfielders, who are both under the age of 24. Homegrown 21-year-old Brennan Johnson already has 18 caps for Wales and is Forest’s top goalscorer this season. Ex-Liverpool full-back Neco Williams was highly rated by Jurgen Klopp.
There is enough talent to win games, and they have pulled off some good results recently. They’ve beaten other relegation candidates Southampton, Leicester, and Leeds since the new year, and grabbed a point away at Bournemouth. Most impressively, they managed to hold reigning Champions Manchester City to a draw after a last-minute Wood equalizer. They could separate from the pack with a few more good results.
Forest are an odd side but they should be good enough to beat the drop. The next few games will be very telling.
14th – Leicester City
Points: 24
Goal difference: -5
Recent form: LWWDL
Next five games: Arsenal (H), Southampton (A), Chelsea (H), Brentford (A), Crystal Palace (A)
Odds they go down: +800
Leicester have been monumentally disappointing this season. They have finished in the top half all three seasons that Brendan Rodgers has been in charge, including two fifth-place finishes and a FA Cup win. They took a slight step back last season, finishing eighth, and now have completely regressed. Leicester haven’t been involved in a relegation battle since the 2014-15 season. They failed to refresh their squad properly and it’s costing them.
However, they had an excellent January window. Man-mountain Harry Souttar and Danish left-back Victor Kristiansen have upgraded Leicester’s defense, whilst Tete has added directness and pace to the right wing. All three have looked excellent since signing and have immediately improved their starting eleven.
As a result, their form has improved. Since their disastrous loss to Nottingham Forest, they have drawn with an in-form Brighton and put four goals past Aston Villa and Tottenham each. Whilst they were beaten 3-0 by Manchester United, they were in the game for the first half and probably should’ve scored first. They’re starting to look like the Leicester of old and it’s hard to see them getting relegated. Their run of games isn’t easy, but they should be comfortably mid-table by the end of the season.
15th – Wolves
Points: 23
Goal difference: -15
Recent form: LWWLW
Next five games: Fulham (A), Liverpool (A), Tottenham (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H)
Odds they go down: +333
Julen Lopetegui has transformed Wolves. They went from a side incapable of scoring goals, to one that put three past Liverpool and two past Southampton despite being two goals down. They added a quality goalscorer in Matheus Cunha and a quality creator in Pablo Sarabia.
Lopetegui has improved Wolves’ out-of-possession structure and brought stability to a club that was in crisis at the turn of the year.
They’ve managed to grab some really important wins as well. Wins against fellow relegation candidates West Ham and Southampton were vital in the context of the season, and a draw away at rivals Aston Villa was a very respectable result given their struggles.
Their recent loss against Bournemouth was certainly a setback, but it was a game they dominated. They had 69% of possession, and 15 shots to Bournemouth’s five. Many of Wolves shots weren’t particularly high-quality chances, but they still had better opportunities overall. They just couldn’t convert.
Wolves are on the up. They’re another team that will likely be fine. Their next four games will be tricky, but if they can snatch some draws and even a win they’ll be in excellent shape to survive.
16th – Everton
Points: 21
Goal difference: -13
Recent form: WLWLL
Next five games: Aston Villa (H), Arsenal (A), Nottingham Forest (A), Brentford (H), Chelsea (A)
Odds they go down: +175
Can Sean Dyche be the new Sam Allardyce? Will Everton’s dysfunctional board let him?
Despite having arguably one of the worst squads in the league, Everton’s upper management decided against buying anyone this January and let one of their brightest talents leave for another Premier League side. They did come close to signing Arnaut Danjuma, but Danjuma was wise enough to realize that Everton’s dysfunction might affect his career and instead chose Tottenham and the Champions League.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom for Everton fans. Dyche is a fantastic manager with a track record of doing well in relegation battles, and he’s a massive upgrade over Frank Lampard. Lampard was clearly in over his head, and couldn’t coach an effective defensive structure. His teams were confused tactically, often trying to play out from the back without the personnel or system to do so.
Dyche isn’t bothering with any of that, playing a vicious 4-5-1 that has already tripped up league leaders Arsenal and fellow relegation candidate Leeds United. He floods the midfield and forces the opposition outside. His wingers track back diligently, and then they burst forward on the counter. The real magic comes from set pieces of course, where Burnley legend James Tarkowski has already scored one and has come close to scoring more.
Dyche’s side will only get better once Dominic Calvert-Lewin is back from injury, although it’s hard to trust the striker given how many games he’s missed over the past few seasons. Currently, Dyche is having to pick from Neal Maupay who has scored one goal in 16 appearances in the Premier League this season, or Ellis Simms a 22-year-old who scored seven goals in 17 appearances. in the Championship last season. Everton really ought to have bought another striker.
It’s hard to see a manager of Dyche’s quality let his side go down, especially given the caliber of some of the other managers in the relegation battle. But Everton really lack attacking talent. It’s going to be close.
17th – Bournemouth
Points: 21
Goal difference: -23
Recent form: WDLDL
Next five games: Man City (H), Arsenal (A), Liverpool (A), Aston Villa (A), Fulham (H)
Odds they go down: -275
Just as Bournemouth look like they’re turning things around, they get hit with an absolutely brutal run of fixtures. Fresh off of beating Wolves and taking points off Newcastle and Nottingham Forest (where they were definitely the better side), they have to play the top two sides in the league, neither of whom can afford to drop a single point.
Bournemouth are a streaky side. They went on an excellent run in September and October, drawing four and winning two, and then they lost four in a row, two of which were to other relegation-caliber sides. They lost four in a row after the World Cup break ended, before going on their recent run of good form.
Therefore it’s the exact wrong time of the season for them to have to face City, Arsenal, and Liverpool on the trot, two of which are away. Their next ‘winnable’ fixture isn’t until late April when they face West Ham and Southampton in the same week. That’s in eight games. That run could be disastrous for their season. They probably need at least two wins and a few draws in there to stay competitive, but it’s hard to see that happening against what’re all top-half sides bar a much-improved Leicester side. It could get really dicey for Bournemouth fans.
They do have fixtures against Southampton, Leeds and Everton to come, but their morale might already be shattered by then. It’s a shame because they added some real quality this transfer window, but it’s not looking good for the Cherries.
18th – West Ham
Points: 20
Goal difference: -10
Recent form: LDDWL
Next five games: Nottingham Forest (H), Brighton (A), Aston Villa (H), Man City (A), Southampton (H)
Odds they go down: +333
West Ham have been a monumental disappointment this season. Last season they finished seventh and reached the semi-finals of the Europa League, after finishing sixth the season before. Over the summer they made statement signings, with the aim of trying to break into the top six. Lucas Paqueta, Maxwel Cornet, Gianluca Scamacca and Nayef Aguerd were all top talent signed in their prime. It was supposed to be their year, but it’s all gone wrong.
Their away record is abysmal. In twelve games, they’ve won one, drawn three and lost the rest, only managing to score seven goals. They’ve lost to some of the worst teams in the division on the road, teams like Everton, Nottingham Forest and Wolves.
Previously key players like Tomas Soucek, Jarrod Bown, Michail Antonio, Aaron Cresswell and Declan Rice haven’t been playing to their usual standard. Soucek looks like a liability on the pitch, Rice looks like he has mind on his next move, Antonio wants to go, Bowen has only scored four goals this season and Cresswell has regressed offensively and defensively.
The new players haven’t been making up for the drop in standards from the old guard either. Lucas Paqueta has struggled for form all season, and only now seems to have settled into the Premier League playing deeper alongside Rice, ahead of Soucek. Scamacca has only scored 3 goals in the league this year. Cornet and Aguerd have shown quality, but both have been struggling with injuries. Cornet has only started one game whilst Aguerd has started six.
Their fundmental problem, however is that they haven’t scored enough. They’ve only scored 19 goals in the season, less than a goal a game. Their defense hasn’t been letting them down (it’s noticeably better than most other relegation sides), they just can’t stick the ball in the back of the net.
A lot of that may be down to luck. According to advanced analytics, they should be a top-half side and have scored 10 more goals than they actually have (19 goals scored compared to 29 expected goals). That’s the biggest underperformance in the division, ahead of Liverpool and Chelsea.
They’ve signed 30-year-old striker Danny Ings to combat their lack of potency in front of goal, and he has the pedigree, scoring 22 goals in the Premier League for Southampton in the 2019/20 season. However, he only scored 13 goals for Aston Villa in the last season and a half and it’s unclear how much he has left in the tank.
West Ham are too good to be in a relegation fight. They have to start proving that or they could get dragged down. Points aren’t won on paper.
19th – Leeds United
Points: 19
Goal difference: -11
Recent form: LLDLD
Next five games: Southampton (H), Chelsea (A), Brighton (A), Wolves (A), Arsenal (H)
Odds they go down: +110
The Jesse Marsch experiment did not pan out for Leeds United, and they’re floundering. It’s been a circus since Marsch was fired in early February, and they’ve only just replaced him with Javi Gracia after getting rejected several times by other coaches.
They also fundamentally lack quality up front. It’s fair to say that Raphinha was a significant reason for their survival last season, and they’re missing him.
Rodrigo is their top goal-scorer with ten goals in the Premier League this season, but he’s out until late March. Previous talisman Patrick Bamford has only managed to score once in the league this season despite getting a multitude of chances. His expected goals stat is 5.56. He’s getting the chances he’s just not converting them. Willy Gnonto has been a revelation, but he’s only 19 and has scored twice in the league this year.
They just don’t have a ‘star’. Someone who can carry an attack, and provide moments of magic when the team is struggling. Someone who can provide moments like this to keep Leeds up. They have some excellent young talent in Gnonto, Georginio Rutter, Crysencio Summerville and Luis Sinisterra. However, they don’t have a star at their peak like they had with Raphinha.
Their lack of cutting edge has cost them. They really should’ve beaten Everton and Nottingham Forest in February, yet they lost to them 1-0 both times. They have a clear gap in quality compared to some of the other sides on this list, but they can’t make the quality count because of their poor finishing.
Can Gracia turn them around? He guided Watford to safety when he took over halfway through in the 2017/18 season, and they finished comfortably mid-table the next season with a FA Cup final appearance to boot (they lost 6-0). However, he got sacked shortly into the next season after getting one point from Watford’s first four games, although it’s important to remember Watford’s owners are notoriously impatient.
There’s a sense from his experience at Watford that he’s a pragmatic coach. He’s not an ideologue like Bielsa tactically, he’s adaptable to his team’s strengths. He usually employs a high-pressing system, but one with more controlled aggression than what Leeds have played with so far. He won’t get Leeds playing prime Dyche-ball, but he’ll bring some control into the chaos. It wasn’t Leeds’ first choice but he’ll be effective.
Leeds have played some good football this year, but they have to start getting some points on the board, and it has to start against Southampton, or they’ll be in real trouble.
20th – Southampton
Points: 18
Goal difference: -21
Recent form: WLLLW
Next five games: Leeds (A), Leicester (H), Man United (A), Brentford (H), Tottenham (H)
Odds they go down: -225
Out of the teams on this list, Southampton look like the most hopeless. Since Oct. 23, they’ve lost 10 games out of 12, winning two against Everton and Chelsea, both of which were won by James Ward-Prowse’s free-kick excellence. They sacked miracle-worker Ralph Hasenhüttl, and replaced him with Nathan Jones, a truly bizaare man, who managed to blame everyone but himself for their poor form. He has since been sacked and replaced with assistant manager Rubén Sellés, who has never managed a senior team before.
To put in simply, they’re in a right pickle. Without Ward-Prowse it could be another Derby County 2007/08 (they have the record for the lowest amount of points in a Premier League) situation. He’s their top scorer in the league with six. Their starting striker, Che Adams, has only scored four goals this season, and it’s unclear if the giant Paul Onuachu (he’s 6ft 7in) is the answer to their goalscoring woes. He certainly hasn’t looked like it so far.
It’s hard to blame Adams or Onuachu for their form however, as their fundemantal issue seems to be they just can’t create chances. Strikers can hardly score if they’re not given any service, and they haven’t been given much at all. Their record signing, Kamaldeen Sulemana has looked lively, but their other forwards are ineffectual at best. Mohamed Elyounoussi especially seems to draw the ire of Southampton fans, and given his 0 goals and 1 assist this season it’s not hard to see why.
Their win against Chelsea was vital, and to build any form of momentum they have to get a result against Leeds, but even that looks unlikely. They just don’t have enough quality in their starting 11. Despite their January upgrades, there are too many liabilities across the pitch. Players like center-back Jan Bednarek, Elyounoussi and winger Stuart Armstrong are just not good enough for this level.
They have some talent in midfielder Romeo Lavia and center-back Armel Bella-Kotchap, but they’re 19 and 21 years old respectively. You can’t rely on kids to carry you in a relegation scrap, no matter how good they are, especially given the positions they play.
I wouldn’t bet on Southampton to stay up.
Key Fixtures:
Leeds vs. Southampton – Feb. 25
Everton vs. Nottingham Forest – March 5
Wolves vs. Leeds – March 18
Nottingham Forest vs. Wolves – April 1
West Ham vs. Southampton – April 2
Leeds vs. Nottingham Forest – April 4
Leicester vs. Wolves – April 22
Leeds vs. Leicester – April 25
Southampton vs. Bournemouth – April 25
Leeds vs. Bournemouth – April 29
Nottingham Forest vs. Southampton – May 6
Everton vs. Bournemouth – May 28
Predictions:
I can see this turning into a five-horse race. Leicester, West Ham and Wolves all seem too good to be stuck in a relegation race for much longer, especially with all three seeming to figure it out recently. Leicester and Wolves’ games against Leeds should be very instructive in telling us the relative levels of the teams, and it’s hard to see Leeds getting anything more than a point from either.
On the other end, it seems as if Bournemouth or Southampton just don’t have the quality to stay up, and I would be surprised if either stayed up. Nottingham Forest are a below-average team, but they have enough points to feel comfortable, and have home fixtures against Everton and Southampton to look forward to, and the bonus of managerial stability.
It comes down to Everton or Leeds, and it’s hard to look past Dyche’s quality as a manager. Gracia is pragmatic and will play good football, but Dyche has consistently coached teams that are better than the sum of their parts, and he knows how to win at this level. It’ll be close, but I can see Everton barely staying up.
Going down: Bournemouth, Leeds, Southampton
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