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2020 NFL Divisional Round Preview: Houston at Kansas City

2020 NFL Divisional Round Preview

(David Eulitt/Getty Images)

KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 13: Deshaun Watson #4 of the Houston Texans greets Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs following the Texans 31-24 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on October 13, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans will hit the road to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional round of the 2020 NFL playoffs. The 10th and 12th picks in the 2017 NFL draft lead their teams into what could be the first of many playoff battles between the two in the next decade. While the Chiefs earned a bye and were spectators during last week’s games, Watson did his best Michael Jordan impression and carried his team past the Wild Card round.

While the Chiefs’ defense made great strides towards the end of the regular season, neither team features a defensive unit that could prevent this game from being a shootout. In the regular season, the Texans successfully got the better of the Chiefs by controlling the ball and forcing some uncharacteristic turnovers by Patrick Mahomes. A similar game plan would be necessary to mimic that result this weekend.

The line for this game favors Kansas City -9.5. The line started at -7.5 and has since moved as Las Vegas is clearly not seeing much support for a repeat winning performance by Watson and Houston. Let’s take a look at how both teams can walk out of this game as one of the two remaining contenders for the Conference Championship.

Houston at Kansas City (KC -9.5): Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 3:05 pm ET (CBS)

How the Chiefs Win

Patrick Mahomes
(David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Control the Clock

It may sound like this strategy would better serve the Texans, and it would. But, keeping the ball out of Deshaun Watson’s hands is just as important as keeping it out of Mahomes’. In three seasons, Watson has led 8 fourth-quarter comebacks and orchestrated 10 game-winning drives. The man is clutch. If Kansas City’s defense is truly not elite, then it would behoove the team to control the clock offensively.

Mahomes is not likely to repeat the mistakes he made during his first outing against the Texans on October 13th. There is no reason, however, for Kansas City to approach this game as a shootout from the get-go. Andy Reid is infamous for mismanaging the play clock. If that happens on Saturday, the Texans might just make it past the Divisional round for the first time.

Tyreek Hill

The Texans’ defense had a very difficult time containing Buffalo’s receivers. There is no player on that unit that can play man against Tyreek Hill and the second Houston relies on zone, it’s over. Using Hill exclusively for explosive plays would counteract the notion of controlling the clock. Instead, Kansas City should capitalize on Houston’s inevitable reliance on zone and use Tyreek’s outstanding ability to find the soft spots in that defense.

Instead of ending the game with one TD bomb play, Kansas City should plan on leaving this game with Hill putting up a stat sheet accounting for double-digit receptions and huge yardage. Approaching the game this way would ensure that the Chiefs are matriculating the football down the field and acquiring first downs consistently. All of this will lead to offensive production while limiting Deshaun Watson’s opportunities to do Watson-like things.

Heavy Read-Option and RPO Action

The Texans struggled to get to Josh Allen early in the game last week. Towards the end, however, J.J. Watt and company made quick work of a tired offensive line to make life difficult for the young QB. In order to counter this aggressiveness, Kansas City needs to get the ball out of Mahomes’ hands quickly.

No team, other than perhaps Baltimore, does a better job of designing and executing read plays. There is no reason to have Mahomes running around for his life all game. Quick passes and targeting the secondary heavily will keep the Chiefs’ QB upright, healthy, and ready to advance past the Divisional round of the playoffs.

How the Texans Win

Deshaun Watson Lamar Jackson
(AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

Take Chances on Defense

Acknowledging that their defense is weak is crucial for Houston. They cannot expect to stick to a traditional defensive game plan and keep Mahomes under control. The Texans’ biggest defensive plays last week came when they collapsed Watson’s pocket. The same will need to be done against Kansas City.

Unfortunately for Houston, Mahomes is almost as dangerous outside of the pocket as he is in it. However, with a creative blitz package that can force pressure inside while having outside linebackers and defensive backs accounting for #15, there is a chance. The Texans are not going to stop Andy Reid’s offense from scoring, but they can sure do plenty to contain the damage.

Trust DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins was matched up against a premier defensive back last week in Tre’Davious White. That will not be the case this week. Next to Michael Thomas, no one is more secure as a receiving option in the league. He absolutely needs to have a big game against the Chiefs in order for the Texans to have a chance.

As much as Kansas City’s defense has improved towards the latter part of the season, there is still not a single player that can cover Hopkins. The Chiefs will focus on zone schemes and possibly double-teaming the star receiver. This should not hold Watson or the Texans’ offensive game plan from targeting Hopkins. Covered or not, this receiver can always make the play.

Wear Down Hyde’s Tires

Carlos Hyde has been an incredibly reliable option in Houston’s offense. Kansas City has improved, but is still heavily susceptible to the run. Ensuring that Hyde has a big game will contribute to keeping the ball out of Mahomes’ hands. Hyde can make this a long day for the Chiefs’ defense and the Texans will need his production in order to both score and keep Kansas City from scoring.

A healthy dose of Duke Johnson would also help, but his participation has been almost exclusively relegated to the passing game. Attempting to run clock with any back other than Hyde could be a mistake. This team cannot afford to fail on third-and-one by not giving their starting running back an opportunity to convert. The Texans need to trust what got them to this point. Hyde was a big part of that.

Prediction: Houston 24 Kansas City 31

The three keys for Houston are much more difficult to execute than those for Kansas City. This game will likely develop into a shootout and, in Kansas City, Mahomes and the Chiefs rarely lose those type of games. Andy Reid and his team move on past the divisional round and into their second straight AFC Championship on Sunday.

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