The Green Bay Packers will face the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game. The expectations for both teams have fluctuated greatly throughout the year. At the beginning of the season, the Packers were favorites to play in this game while the 49ers’ ceiling seemed to be a playoff appearance. By the halfway point of the season, those expectations had flipped.
There has been a level of skepticism about both teams leading up to the playoffs. Was Green Bay the weakest 13-3 team in a while? Could the 49ers continue winning primarily by running and playing good defense? Both of those questions were answered last week. Green Bay looked incredible against Seattle and San Francisco demolished a team that had just shut down Drew Brees and the Saints one week before.
The line for this game is San Francisco -7.5. This seems surprising given Green Bay’s performance last week. There are still clearly remnants of the 49ers-Packers game earlier this season bleeding into the expected outcome of this game. Let’s take a look at how this game will be vastly different than their regular season contest and how each team can win the NFC Championship.
Green Bay at San Francisco (SF -7.5): Sunday, January 19, 2020 – 6:40 PM ET (NBC)
How the 49ers win
Spread it out
No team does a better job of sticking to its identity than the San Francisco 49ers. Kyle Shanahan loves to spread out defenses with outside runs and then burn them up the middle with play-action. No matter how well a defense plays, there is no way to stop a system that performs like this consistently. The outside runs need to be respected and that spreads linebackers and safeties away from the box, leaving the defense susceptible to speedy receivers up the middle.
Against the Minnesota Vikings, this game plan looked like it could fail. The Vikings have outstanding linebackers and safeties. Even while possibly being the best at that position, San Francisco’s game plan worked. Not even someone as skilled as Eric Kendricks could keep up with accounting for outside pitches and stretch plays while also guarding the middle of the field. If the Vikings’ defense couldn’t do this, the Packers’ defense does not stand a much better chance.
Defensive line consistency
In their first contest, San Francisco’s defensive line was a nightmare for Aaron Rodgers. While Rodgers is mobile enough to give good defenses trouble, he was able to do nothing against the 49ers. That same effort needs to show up on Sunday.
The consistency of San Francisco’s defensive line started watering down after losing Dee Ford. Last week’s performance, with Ford back in there, brought that consistency right back. The Packers will certainly try to counteract the aggressive defensive line of the 49ers by utilizing more of Aaron Jones. As hard as the line will be rushing Rodgers, consistency is key to ensuring that they are not defeated by the quick throw or outside rushing attempt.
Jimmy Garoppolo
Garoppolo’s performance could ultimately determine the outcome of this game. Throughout the season and last week, Garoppolo has not had to win a game alone. He has not had to do what Aaron Rodgers has done his entire career. The pressure has not been there for Garoppolo to be a game-winner.
Despite that fact, Garoppolo has been exactly that: a winner. He has done it with quality talent around him in both New England and San Francisco, but he’s done it. If things go wrong in the NFC Championship, the pressure could fall on his shoulders to win the game. In order to advance to the Super Bowl, Jimmy Garoppolo might have to prove that he is the real deal.
How the Packers win
Aaron Rodgers
The Packers have improved in every aspect imaginable this season. From personnel to play-calling, this is one of the best teams Green Bay has assembled in a while. Despite all this, Aaron Rodgers is still the determining factor in any game they play.
This throw can be made only by a few players in this league. Davante Adams could have not turned his head and the ball would have still landed right in his hands. For all of the defensive and offensive improvements that have brought Green Bay back to the NFC Championship, none of it matters if Aaron Rodgers is not playing quarterback. This game will be won or lost depending on his performance.
Stop the run
This is easy to write, yet almost impossible to execute. No team in the league runs the ball more creatively than San Francisco. Most teams have to prepare for one or two running backs. Against the 49ers, teams have to prepare for an entire unit that includes tailbacks and receivers. Green Bay has improved its defensive personnel, but can it hold up against a strong running attack? The answer to that question could swing this game.
Test Jimmy Garoppolo
This could go along with stopping the run. If Jimmy Garoppolo has to throw the ball, it likely means that the 49ers have fallen behind. If Green Bay could somehow make this game a shootout, anyone would place their chips behind Aaron Rodgers.
As mentioned above, no team has truly placed Garoppolo in a position where he has to perform at an elite level in order to win. The defense and running game for San Francisco has simply played well enough to avoid this. Green Bay has the offense and defense to potentially make this happen. The Super Bowl representative for the NFC will either be arguably the greatest QB of all time or the man who is moving into elite level at the beginning stages of his career. It will be fun either way.
Prediction: Green Bay 28 San Francisco 27
It should be a tight one. I think, and hope, that this will come down to Rodgers vs. Garoppolo. I’ll take the GOAT.
