The 2020 AFC Championship game will feature the Tennessee Titans and the Kansas City Chiefs. One of those teams was expected to play in this game; the other was expected to be watching from home. The fact that both teams have made it this far is a testament to how any one winning style is no recipe for success in the NFL.
The Chiefs lost one quarter against the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Round. They then proceeded to win the other three by a score of 51-10. The Titans have not trailed in the 2020 post-season and have potentially brought an end to a dynasty and presented a nasty speed-bump to the birth of another. While this was not the AFC Championship game that anyone expected, it certainly has the potential to be the one everyone deserves.
The line for this game favors the Chiefs -7. Had this game been played in the Divisional Round instead of the AFC Championship, the line would have been significantly higher. It is clear that Tennessee has earned some respect after its last two playoff victories. Let’s take a look at how both teams can move on to the Super Bowl.
Tennessee at Kansas City (KC -7): Sunday, January 19, 2020 – 3:05 PM ET (CBS)
How the Chiefs Win
Stay the course
The Chiefs have a decorated leader in Andy Reid who has often been criticized for his ability to manage the clock in critical situations. While results of important games not favoring Reid is used as support for that infamy, this represents more a correlation than a cause-and-effect relationship. Reid is a smart coach and often weighs the benefits of an extra play or two over churning away more play clock.
When a coach has Reid’s ability to design plays, why wouldn’t he trust that over conservatively managing a clock? If the result fails, this is typically a result of defensive liabilities. This rarely get brought up in the context of Reid’s previous failures. Instead of criticizing his in-game management process, it would be more appropriate to highlight the weaknesses of past defensive coordinators on his staff. Against Tennessee, Reid has to stay the course and trust his judgment. It worked last week against the Titans and there is no reason to believe that trusting Patrick Mahomes and his offense would yield a different result in the AFC Championship game.
Let Derrick Henry run
Derrick Henry is a machine. He is not going to be stopped and Kansas City should not expose itself to other aspects of Tennessee’s offense in an effort to slow Henry down. If Henry runs for 150 yards and 2 TD’s as a result of the Chiefs playing base defense all game, that would still account for only 14 points on the board. Mahomes and the offense scored 21 in just over three minutes against Houston last week.
Tennessee’s running game is its strength and the typical defensive game plan attempts to limit the opposing team’s strength. The Chiefs should do the opposite. The need to ensure that neither Ryan Tannehill nor any other part of that offense has anything more than a mediocre game. If this is accomplished, even an average performance by the Chiefs’ defense should yield the team a favorable result. Henry has made a name for himself as perhaps the best RB in the league. If Kansas City does things right, that perception should not change after Sunday’s game.
Travis Kelce
The Titans have not had to play an elite tight end in the playoffs yet. The New England Patriots did not have a reliable weapon at that position and Mark Andrews was not at 100% for the Baltimore Ravens due to a high-ankle sprain. Travis Kelce will be the first challenge for the Titans and the TE position – and he will be a big one.
Tennessee’s defense is no joke. They have made a name for themselves due to how easily they can adapt to different offenses. Against the Chiefs, the Titans will need all of their defensive backs to account for the speedy receivers on the field. This will place the onus on the linebackers and safeties to account for Kansas City’s RBs and Kelce. Patrick Mahomes and his tight end have two years of experience. This has produced a chemistry seldom seen in the league. If that continues during the AFC Championship game, Tennessee will be in big trouble.
How the Titans win
Ryan Tannehill needs to be elite
Ryan Tannehill has played well enough to earn himself a long-term contract in the offseason. There is very little correlation, however, between that level of play and an AFC Championship. Tannehill needs to play like an elite QB in order to make it to the Super Bowl.
This doesn’t mean that the Titans’ QB needs to do something extraordinary on Sunday, although he may. It means that Ryan Tannehill needs to play flawless football. From the moment he calls out the play, to the recognition of defensive plays, to making adjustments at the line, to actually hitting every handoff, play-action fake, and throw perfectly, everything has to come out right. That level of perfection combined with Derrick Henry’s abilities could surprise Kansas City. Tannehill doesn’t need to do anything special, but he does have to be perfect in the AFC Championship game.
Defensive line brilliance
Patrick Mahomes is dangerous no matter where he is standing when he throws the ball. In fact, it could be argued that he is better when he is scrambling than when he is sitting in the pocket. This is a result of defenses, no matter how good, not being able to sustain coverage assignments for an extended period of time.
This is where the defensive line for the Titans needs to make a difference. Mahomes needs to be under pressure. But, the pressure has to ultimately yield a sack, a throwaway, or a mistake. There is no benefit to pressuring Mahomes if this will simply allow for a bigger play downfield. If that’s the case, it would be best to back off and force plays in front of the defense that could lead to shorter gains more frequently. The Titans have a great defensive line and can certainly make life difficult for Mahomes. If they want to play one more game after Sunday, they will have to do just that.
Play with emotion
Arrowhead stadium is going to be ridiculously loud at 3:05 PM ET. Mike Vrabel and the Titans need to be louder. They have defeated better teams over the past two weeks partly because of coaching and how much the players on this team love their head coach. Very few in that stadium, or watching at home, will be giving the Titans a chance. This is just how Vrabel likes it. If that emotion on the sidelines at kickoff translates into a quick turnover or a quick score, the team could build off that and continue the fiery momentum. If that persists for sixty minutes, the AFC Championship could take an interesting turn.
Prediction: Tennessee 24 Kansas City 38
Henry should produce again and account for 2 scores. I do not think Tannehill will do enough to add more than another score or two for his team. While it should be an entertaining game, Kansas City will win convincingly and finally make past the AFC Championship game.
