Only 3 teams in NFL history have made the playoffs after a 0-3 start. It hasn’t been done since 1998. With week 4 of the 2017 season set to get underway, it’s filled with excitement across the board. Are the Patriots vulnerable? Could Ben McAdoo get fired in September? Are the Jets actually the best team in New York? Week 4 will tell us a lot.
Last week’s game picks turned into an 8-8 week which brings my overall record to 30-17 on the season. If you agree or disagree with my picks, make sure to tweet at me @treydaubert. Without further ado, here is your week 4 NFL game picks against the spread.
Thursday Night: Chicago At Green Bay (GB -7)
The Bears are actually coming off a win. Therefore, a loss has to follow right? The question is whether the Packers can win by more than a touchdown? I have to think the Packers can win by more than a touchdown. These things come in streaks. Packers are coming off a bad performance against the Bengals. Don’t expect that to happen two weeks in a row. Take the Packers.
Sunday 9:30 A.M. ET: New Orleans At Miami (London Game) (NO-3)
It’s another game in London. The Saints are giving up points with that lousy defense? I know the Dolphins just lost to the Jets, but Adam Gase is a darn good football coach. In the depths of the unknown in London; Are we sure that Drew Brees will be able to throw the ball with ease in a new environment. In an ugly game, I like Jay Ajayi and the Dolphins to control the clock and win.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Buffalo At Atlanta (ATL -8)
People are sleeping on Buffalo. The Bills have proven they will not be a gimme put. 8 points are way too much. Take the Bills. Buffalo has only given up 37 points through 3 games. The Bills also led the NFL in rushing last season and have the ability to keep the Falcons offense on the sidelines. We have massively overrated the Falcons. There’s a reason why they have a negative turnover differential on the season. Even if Atlanta wins, it won’t be by more than 8 points.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Cincinnati At Cleveland (CIN -3)
Is this a trap game? Bengals by 3? Really? Vegas must know something. I’ll take the Browns with the points. Maybe the Browns are just due. They are 1-18 during the last 19 games.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Los Angeles At Dallas (DAL -6.5)
I normally don’t do this, but I like Dallas here. DeMarcus Lawrence is the number one edge rusher this season according to PFF. When the game speeds up for Jared Goff, things go south quickly. Expect Dallas to eat the clock as they did against the Cardinals. Zeke Elliot finally looks like he’s in the groove. Let’s face it, both of the Rams wins this year are against bad teams (Indy – San Fran). Take Dallas.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Detroit At Minnesota (EVEN)
The Vikings have proven to be a really great home team. They just beat up on a really good Bucs team at home with Case Keenum. This Vikings defense is for real. Could that last second loss for the Lions linger on the team in the coming weeks? I like the home team.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Carolina At New England (NE -9)
The Patriots are on pace to have the worst defense in the history of the NFL. They rank 32nd in points allowed and yards allowed. By the way, they also rank 32nd in both pass yards and rush yards allowed, they are that bad. This is too many points. By the way, Carolina’s defense is pretty darn good. Take the Panthers.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Jacksonville At New York Jets (JAX -3.5)
The Jets got their win out of the way so I lean toward the Jags here. As long as the Jags can keep running the ball with Leonard Fournette, they have been able to get by with check down Blake Bortles. Jacksonville’s defense is also darn good. Jalen Ramsey hasn’t allowed a pass more than 8 yards yet. Good luck Josh McCown!
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Pittsburgh At Baltimore (Pitt -3)
This series might be the best rivalry in all of sports. Historically, these games always seem to come down to a field goal. Therefore, why would I ever not take the points in this game? Add in that both teams are coming off a loss. Pittsburgh’s seemed to have stemmed from distractions. Baltimore’s was a product of Joe Flacco having one of those outings where he flat out doesn’t care. The Ravens at home seem like a good bet.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Tennessee At Houston (TEN -1.5)
Deshaun Watson is a winner. There’s no other way to put it. Despite conservative play calling from Bill O’Brien and a horrible defensive effort from Houston, Watson did enough to beat the Patriots despite the outcome. At home, with a solid run game, I like Houston. Look for the Texans to take control of this division in the coming weeks.
Sunday 4:05 P.M. ET: San Fran At Arizona (ARI -7)
There’s too many points to not take the 49ers in this spot. Kyle Shanahan, despite the 0-3 record, has done a really nice job. You try putting up 39 points on a Wade Phillips defense with Brian Hoyer! San Fran doesn’t have the talent but their coaching has made up some of the difference. They keep it close but lose again.
Sunday 4:05 P.M. ET: Philadelphia At Los Angeles Charges (LAC -1.5)
I have been saying this for multiple weeks. You can’t hire a running back coach and expect to win games. Sooner or later, Vegas will even figure this out. It is blasphemous that the Chargers are favored. It’s not because of their talent, it’s because they hired a joke as their head coach. Philip Rivers looks shot and threw 3 picks last week. Philly is probably playoff bound and will find a way to win this one.
Sunday 4:05 P.M. ET: New York Giants At Tampa Bay (TB -3)
Famous Jameis needed that gut check loss a week ago. Expect the Bucs to get back in the win column at home. Until cheesecake factory employee Ben McAdoo gives up play calling, I’m not taking the Giants the rest of the year. The Giants are a mess. Give me the Bucs.
Sunday 4:25 P.M. ET: Oakland At Denver (DEN -2.5)
I think the Broncos got exposed a week ago. The Raiders appear to be a 12 or 13 win caliber team that got stung for the first time. Expect them to rebound and beat the Broncos. I also like points so there’s that.
Sunday Night: Indianapolis At Seattle (SEA -13)
As I told you when the Seahawks played the 49ers, never pass on a line that juicy. I know Indy is bad but don’t pass on 13 points. Seattle also has the worst offensive line in football and will underachieve all year because of it. Jacoby Brissett has given the Colts new life. Seems like an awful Bill Belichick trade if you ask me. Take the Colts.
Monday Night: Washington At Kansas City (KC -7)
I’m going to go with Washington. KC might have the better roster but the Redskins are one of the few teams that actually have a coaching staff to match Kansas City. Jay Gruden has worked wonders with Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton before him. Jim Tomsula, the defensive line coach, and Bill Callahan, the offensive line coach, have the Skins playing well at the line of scrimmage. I’m not sure Andy Reid out coaches this bunch the way he has been all season. I like the Chiefs to win but only by a field goal.
