Jabari Smith Should Not Be Drafted No. 1 Overall by the Orlando Magic
In the 2022 NBA Draft, four prospects are generally considered to be in the elite tier. Those four are Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr., Duke’s Paolo Banchero, Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, and Purdue’s Jaden Ivey. Most of the intel leading up to the draft has zeroed in on Smith being the favorite for Orlando’s No. 1 overall pick. Objectively looking at what each guy brings to the table leaves me wondering how this is the case. Truthfully, I believe there’s a better argument for Smith being fourth of that group than first.
Why Would Anyone Take an Off-Ball Player No. 1 Overall?
Smith thrives when it comes to perimeter play. His combination of three-point shooting and perimeter defense are rarely found in a 6’10” frame. The problem is that this is basically all he offers. Shot creation is a real issue. Banchero, Holmgren, and Ivey are all very capable at creating their own shots. You can give them the ball pretty much anywhere on the court and tell them to go get a bucket. Not so with Jabari Smith. He has a below-average handle and isn’t very good at creating space. The justification for taking him at No. 1 overall has to be more than just his three-point shooting, because the other three guys clear him in pretty much every other offensive attribute.
It’s baffling that any team could convince themselves that taking an off-ball player above three elite prospects who have much more diverse offensive profiles is a good idea. How many NBA stars can’t create their own shot? How many max contract players can’t dribble? Smith’s ceiling is far more limited than most are willing to admit.
Living on the Perimeter
What’s more concerning is that Jabari Smith was really terrible at the rim. He only shot around 14% of his field goal attempts at the rim, converting on just 52% of those looks (per The Strickland). That’s a red flag. He shot 20% on stepback jumpers. The vast majority of his field goals came after zero or one dribble. Essentially what you’re getting is a high-level catch-and-shoot guy. That’s fine, but is that really what we’re doing with the No. 1 overall pick? A better version of Davis Bertans?
Smith’s promising perimeter game should keep him from being a bad NBA player, but it also doesn’t appear likely he becomes a star without a major change to his offensive package. As it stands, I would not advocate for selecting him with the No. 1 overall pick.
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