It’s never too early to start talking about the NFL Draft. The 2018 college football season has already begun and it’s time to get an early gauge on the potential quarterback class. I hate to break it to everyone but the 2019 quarterback class doesn’t compare to the 2018 class. I mean that in a bad way. 5 quarterbacks went in the first round of the 2018 Draft. Not all of them deserved to go in the first round but it was, by all means, a talented group. When talking about the 2019 class, I don’t think any of them deserve to be first round picks at the moment. If you need a quarterback, good luck. Let’s take a look at what we could be working with when the 2019 NFL Draft rolls around.
1. Drew Lock (Missouri)
I like Drew Lock but I don’t love him. A lot of pundits will get cautious of Lock because of the horrendous Blaine Gabbert experiment. I will tell you that Lock is nothing like Gabbert. Lock will be a four-year starter which is a huge plus. Lock’s numbers are also disgusting in a good way. Lock threw for 3,964 yards with 44 touchdowns and 13 interceptions a year ago in the SEC. Blaine Gabbert threw 16 touchdowns the year he declared so he doesn’t sniff that kind of production. People also forget that Gabbert was actually really fast. Lock will probably come in at a 4.9 type of guy.
The tools are there with Lock. He has a huge arm and comes with good size at 6-foot-3. Lock doesn’t have a Mahomes level rocket but Lock’s arm talent is real. The problem is Lock didn’t complete 60 percent of his throws last year (58 percent) is always a red flag when drafting a quarterback. In fact, 99 percent of the time I advocate to pass on anyone who can’t reach that number. Lock has what it takes but he must improve his accuracy to move into that first round conversation.
2. Justin Herbert (Oregon)
No one has a bigger ceiling than Justin Herbert. If Herbert reaches his potential, we are looking at a superstar. The problem is we don’t always see that guy. Herbert is incredibly raw and the Oregon offense is incredibly difficult to evaluate. Oregon’s offense is very far away from a modern NFL offense so it’s hard to judge. We also didn’t see a ton of Herbert because of a shoulder injury which doesn’t help his cause considering the Pac 12 doesn’t have the best competition. The good news is Oregon was 6-2 in games started by Herbert and 1-6 in games he didn’t start.
Herbert hoovers at 6-foot-6 and can really move around the pocket. Herbert completed 67 percent of his throws for 1,750 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. Herbert still needs to improve his decision making and show an ability to progress through his reads but that’s something we may not get to see at Oregon. Herbert is raw but we’re going to find out just how good this guy really is this year…barring injury.
Deciphering The Truth From The Crap
Experts are wrong about the quarterback position every year. I laugh at their rankings every year because people still haven’t figured out how to evaluate quarterbacks. Luckily, you have me to educate you on what to watch for.
I saw Ryan Finley listed as the top quarterback prospect by a lot of experts. If people truly believe this then they need to go get some help. Let’s be honest, Finley is nothing more than a game manager at best in the NFL. I know this because he’s nothing more than a game manager for NC State. 17 touchdowns as a full-time starter as a Junior in the ACC ain’t it. It’s not like NC State didn’t have players either. A 6th round backup sounds right.
Here’s another one you will here because I’ve been doing this for way too long. Will Grier is not good. I don’t care how many yards he throws for at West Virginia. Grier could win the Heisman. I do not care. Geno Smith lit the world on fire at WVU too. How did that work out for him when he went to the NFL? I’ll give you a secret; all you have to do is plug the tape of Will Grier at the University of Florida. He can’t play I promise you.
Jarrett Stidham of Auburn isn’t an NFL quarterback either. Well, not an elite prospect by any means. I know this because He didn’t light the world on fire as a Freshman during the Art Briles years when everyone else did. All you have to do is watch how Auburn calls plays. If Stidham is a productive NFL caliber quarterback then why is their playcalling so conservative? No thanks.
I’ll give you a couple sleepers to keep an eye on. I’m not promising they will break out and become first-round picks but I’m saying that they may become very interesting. Shea Patterson may have just been a product of a bad situation at Ole Miss. I think we forget that we have to evaluate the coaching staff before we evaluate the quarterback. Considering the mess that Patterson dealt with at Ole Miss should be thought of as more than pretty unfair. Let’s start with a clean slate for Patterson at Michigan. He has a real head coach and a talented team around him. Patterson is a former number one quarterback recruit so the talent is there. We’re going to figure out if Patterson is just a run around guy like Johnny Manziel or if he can thrive within the pocket. No excuse.
Dwayne Haskins was intriguing in a really small sample size. I don’t think there’s any doubt that he’s better than J.T. Barrett at the very least. 70 percent thrower, 4 touchdowns, 1 pick isn’t too shabby in 57 attempts. He may be just another Troy Smith but hey, keep him on the radar.
Here’s a deep, deep sleeper for you. Tyree Jackson of Buffalo could charge on to the radar and I want you to tell your friends that you heard it here first. Jackson is a 6-foot-7 monster. He’s also a 60 percent thrower but his production doesn’t jump off the charts. Jackson’s Junior year could be the year he pops.
